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U.S.
- China Sees Change From War to Economics
By Franz Schurmann, Pacific News Service, April 20, 2001
A view of China as a customer rather than a threat seems
to inform us the Bush administration's policy in the Pacific.
This has ruffled the feathers of hawks in a number of countries,
but may reflect the will of all who are directly concerned
with the matter. PNS editor Franz Schurmann, professor emeritus
of history and sociology at UC-Berkeley, is author of numerous
books on foreign affairs.
America's armchair hawks are about to be badly disappointed
again. Their bellowing and fist-shaking about the "China threat"
is only helping bring about a new U.S.-China relationship
marked by business and more business.
The
giveaway is President Bush's appointment of Clark Randt, Jr.,
his Yale classmate and expert on Chinese business, as U.S.
ambassador to Beijing. He succeeds retired Admiral Joseph
Prueher, the U.S. official in charge of negotiating the release
of the spy plane's crew.
Shortly
after his election victory was certified, Bush's team leaked
information that the new president would name a businessman
to succeed Prueher. Since this was the only hint of any ambassadorial
appointment, it indicated China's top ranking in the mind
of the new administration. The first foreign dignitary who
Secretary of State Colin Powell spoke to after he was sworn
in was Li Zhaoxing, the outgoing Chinese ambassador.
Another
give-away was the timing of the announcement of Randt's appointment.
The day before, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan astonished the
business world with an unexpected interest rate cut and markets
all over the world soared.
The
following day, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Peter Verga,
who led U.S. team in Beijing negotiating for return of the
spy plane sounded a positive note, saying that negotiations
will continue and agreement is expected.
If
it is to avoid recession, the United States will have to sell
a lot of goods abroad -- first and foremost in Asia, where
China is by far the biggest market.
China's
"Western Development Project" (WDP) is reminiscent of similar
public works projects in America's west around a century ago.
Not only are American businesses ready to put money into the
WDP, but so is Taiwan.
Much
of the "China threat" bellowing refers to protecting Taiwan
militarily from Mainland attack. The Chinese-language Sing
Tao Daily reported on April 18 that Representative Bob Stump
(Rep., Arizona) called for the sale of U.S. destroyers equipped
with the advanced Aegis radar system to Taiwan.
But
on the front page, the paper prominently displayed a story
saying that Bush's top advisers recommended against the Aegis
sale.
Not
all Taiwanese are eager to get advanced U.S. arms. The most
widely read pro-Taiwan newspaper in America, the World Journal,
editorialized April 18, "We must not let hawkish opinion guide
the spy plane negotiations."
The
fact is that most Taiwanese now see their economic future
in Mainland China. They want their government to come to terms
with the Mainland and open wide the doors now closed to large-scale
investment. And they want the American government to back
them.
But
there are political operatives in Taiwan, headed by former
President Lee Teng-hui -- widely known as the "pro-Japan faction"
-- that wants the conservative Japanese government to tilt
towards them.
Envision
an alliance of Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. aimed squarely at
China. That also is the ultimate aim of the "China threat"
hawks in the U.S.
As
Washington was waffling on the Aegis sale, Lee Teng-hui applied
for a Japanese visa so he could be treated for a heart condition.
The lame duck Mori administration was at a loss what to do
-- the Foreign Office recommended not granting a visa, but
the government's ultra-right wing wanted a visa granted.
The
result was a compromise that will restrict his presence to
the town of Kurashiki in Okayama prefecture where he will
be medically treated. Though Beijing will keep on protesting,
the image of Lee projected will be one of a former president
treated like an illegal alien.
Taiwan
President Chen Shui-bian had asked for a regular visa, but
Japanese Foreign Minister Kono Yohei, the most powerful figure
in the Mori cabinet, said no.
After
years of trying to get their country into a more military
and economic mood, the Japanese "China threat" faction may
now give up. The last thing most Japanese -- and most Taiwanese
and China Mainlanders -- want is any kind of war, be it hot
or cold. The denial of a regular visa to Lee shows that the
Japanese "China threat" faction, despite its membership in
the government, did not have the power to impose their views.
Nor
can its American counterparts do more than bellow and clench
their fists. Meanwhile, corporations of all size are hoping
that later this year they will all be laughing on their way
to the banks. Of course, if recession should occur in America,
then the "China threat" hawks will be back along with their
counterparts in Japan and Taiwan.
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