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Israel Losing Its American Support Because Of Big Oil And Sharon
By Franz Schurmann, Pacific News Service, July 6, 2001

Israel not only is losing American support but Sharon is turning the relationship from allies to battlers. The biggest reason is that, like in earlier Republican administrations, oil was by far the biggest concern. Now concern for Israel could fall even further because of Sharon's bloody tactics and tricky dealings with Arafat. PNS Commentator Franz Schurmann is emeritus professor at the University of California at Berkeley. He has written extensively on the Middle East in his book "The Foreign Politics of Nixon" (Berkeley, 1987).

A read of the Arab-language media reveals how and why U.S.-Israel relations changed decisively after Israeli prime minister Sharon's tension-ridden visit with President Bush.

America is no longer Israel's staunchest ally. In fact, the relationship may have turned hostile. Writing in the June 28 issue of the authoritative Saudi-based As-Sharq al-Ausat (ASAA), top Palestinian commentator Ms. Hadi al-Husseini referred to "Ariel Sharon's coming battle (ma'araka) with the Bush administration."

She urged "all Palestinian factions not to support Sharon in this battle." It is well known in the region that Sharon has been directly dealing with Arafat through his son Omri. And his foreign minister Shimon Peres has repeatedly said that in the long haul Israel could become Palestine's best friend.

Al-Husseini quotes an unnamed American source to explain this change. Referring to American Middle East policy he says: "Oil comes first, second and third. Israel comes fourth. Israeli prime-ministers from Ben Gurion through Shamir and Netanyahu faced this same fact and never won out." Ariel Sharon is the latest Israeli prime-minister to fail.

There were plenty of public signs that Sharon was losing his tug-of-war with Bush. He argued to Bush that all violence by the Palestinians must end before peace talks can resume. Bush responded by saying that violence had already been substantially reduced. Despite Sharon's request for a postponement, Secretary of State Powell promptly went to the Middle East.

Powell's first stop was Cairo where he met with President Mubarak. In a press conference, widely reported in Arab papers, Powell said "prime minister Sharon will soon determine whether the rate of violence has sufficiently declined." Powell sounded like a sergeant telling a rookie "soldier, you WILL do that."

Sharon is not a popular figure anywhere. In Arab political cartoons he is usually shown with blood dripping from his hands. In Brussels he faces a possible war crimes indictment like that which has landed Milosevic into the Hague tribunal. His trip up to the Al-Aqsa Mosque last September 28 is regarded as the beginning of the Intifada II which Sharon says is still going on while Bush says it has substantially tapered off.

Some Arab writers believe that the Palestinians have gained a small edge. Besaam Abu Shareef, another regular commentator in the ASSA, noted that Israeli casualties are going up in proportion to Palestinian. "Sharon now finds himself in a predicament he can't get out of. If he can't succeed in subduing the Palestinians through military force there is no way he can win through negotiations resting on a political base." The only such "political basis" in the past was American support and even that never was able to assert itself over the powerful politics of oil.

Sharon's biggest lost battle was over the Mitchell Report. Bush has made it the non-negotiable centerpiece of the new talks between Israelis, Palestinians and Americans.

The Mitchell Report calls for an immediate cessation of all and any construction of the settlements. But that could end up with the evacuation of the 200,000 settlers -- and then a good possibility that Palestinians in several refugee camps who are demanding their "right of return" will replace them.

Yossi Beilin, the Israeli negotiator in the l993 Oslo accords, said in Le Monde of June 30, "there is no alternative to dismembering all settlements in the Gaza Strip and 100 out of 150 on the West Bank."

The new U.S.-Israel battle has already reached into the heart of the Israeli government. As reported in the ASAA of July 2 the entire cabinet -- excepting only Sharon himself -- blasted Foreign Minister Shimon Peres for having met with Yaser Arafat in Lisbon.

In an interview with ASAA last March 30, Peres said that he joined the government because Sharon told him "he now favors a complete halt to further building of settlements."

But the battle can no longer be won, lost or settled just by not building any more settlements. There is a good chance that, given the precarious world energy situation, the Bush White House may already be thinking of lowering Israel another rung on the scale of importance from fourth down to fifth.


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