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Taiwan Independence Spectre Roils U.S.-China Relations
By Franz Schurmann, June 28, 2001, Pacific News Service

U.S.-China relations have been bumpy but mostly because of incidents rather than challenges. But now a challenge is arising that could some day lead to war. The re-emergence of independence as an issue on the Taiwan political scene could again seriously challenge both America and China. PNS Associate Editor Franz Schurmann is a professor emeritus of history and sociology at UC-Berkeley.

After the somewhat heated, recent exchange over the spy plane incident it seemed as if U.S.-China tensions were cooling down. Now, suddenly, tensions are back, although no new destabilizing incident has been reported.

Why?

The most likely explanation is that an explosive two-word phrase has reappeared on the international stage -- Taiwan independence.

One reason U.S.-China relations had been improving is that both sides came up with a tacit understanding about Taiwan. Though publicly committed to regaining Taiwan by force if necessary, privately, Beijing says it will only do so if Taiwan declares independence.

As for Washington, while it is publicly committed to resisting any such move with counter-force, President Bush has said the commitment is moot if Taiwan declares independence.

Indicators of this tacit understanding have come in statements by authoritative sources. One of China's top U.S. experts, Wang Jishi, coined the expression "hot peace" to describe U.S.-China relations. Hot peace means no war, but fierce rivalry -- especially economic. Bush's statement that China is no "partner" but rather a "competitor" of America fits well with Wang's concept.

However, one prominent political figure, former president of Taiwan Lee Teng-hui, is now openly promoting Taiwan independence. And as the Hong Kong-based Sing Tao Daily headlined in its June 19 issue, "Lee's espousal of Taiwan independence chills people."

Close associates during his 12 years as president say Lee is not the friend they once knew -- "he won't listen, won't ask and won't speak." What he does do, however, is appear in photo-ops with his new friend, current Taiwan president Chen Shui-bian. Ah Bien, as he is commonly called, heads the pro-independence Democratic People's Party (DPP).

Between May 24 and 26, Lee was in the U.S. on a visit to his alma mater, Cornell. When his plane landed in Los Angeles, demonstrators pro and con greeted him. The pros held signs saying "independence," while the cons shouted "traitor," a reference to his alleged acceptance of the DPP's central dogma that "Taiwanese are not Chinese." The furious counter-assertion is "Taiwanese are Chinese."

Age counts in Chinese culture and one of Taiwan's top elders Wang Yung-ching, called "the god of all CEOs," came out publicly and said the Taiwan government must immediately accept China's rock bottom condition of "one China" so that political reconciliation talks can begin.

Wang added that if Chinese and American forces should clash, Taiwan will not have been the cause. The pro-Taiwan World Journal published a long editorial in its June 20 edition attacking Lee and praising Wang. On June 24, the Singapore-based Lianhe Zaobao published an edited version of a Washington Post piece datelined Beijing entitled "Chinese leaders are increasingly worried about clashes with the U.S."

The theme is Washington's growing concern about China's rapid transformation into an economic superpower. Beijing has sent several delegations to Washington to scout the scene, but nothing has been made public.

At its meeting in Moscow on July 13, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) will announce its 2008 choice. If the choice is Beijing, as all reports indicate, U.S.-China relations will get back on track.

But if the IOC unexpectedly makes a different choice, Beijing will conclude that the Bush White House could not stand up to the powerful anti-China lobby.

And that will explain why Lee Teng-hui and Taiwan independence have unexpectedly re-emerged on the world scene. Lee then will become the founding farther of the Taiwanese nation -- as the Sing Tao Daily wrote. Then, in Beijing's view, war will come because Bush's banning of Taiwan independence will be seen as nothing but empty words.


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