"A War from Morocco to Muscat" - East Asia Under Control - Real Powder Keg in Midlle East
By Franz Schurmann, Pacific News Service, May 11, 2001

"The world faces descent into catastrophic terrorism unless Bush acts fast," warns Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak. Authoritative Arabic newspapers and journals echo the warning. What makes the situation particularly grave is that, unlike in East Asia where governments are in firm control, political instability is rising throughout West Asia and North Africa. PNS associate editor Franz Schurmann, professor emeritus at UC-Berkeley, detailed U.S. policy in the Middle East in his book "The Foreign Politics of Richard Nixon -- the Grand Design" (Institute of International Studies, UC Berkeley, 1987).

While the American media give full coverage to U.S.-China troubles they say little on the Middle East beyond the unending body counts in the Holy Land. But the Arabic press is extremely worried.

The authoritative London-based As-Sharq al-Ausat ran a lead story under the headline "Bush adviser talks of a war from Morocco to Muscat." Muscat, Oman's capital, is close to the strategic Strait of Hormuz through which tankers pass carrying Gulf oil and liquefied natural gas.

The adviser, Bruce Reidel, served Clinton and now serves Bush. In a speech before the Washington chapter of the Anti-Defamation League, he repeated several times that the situation in the Middle East has never been so threatening as now.

Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, one of America's few friends in the region, agrees. In a lengthy interview with the Kuwaiti journal "Policy" he warned that "the Middle East is ready to explode." It won't lead to wars but rather to "an abyss of catastrophic terrorism" into which Israel will be the first to fall.

Reidel gave three reasons for the coming regional war. Two of them -- disastrous Arab-Israeli relations and the spread of terrorism -- echo Mubarak's warning. The third, the spread of weapons of mass destruction throughout the region, highlights a big difference between East and West Asia.

The East Asian countries are also upping their military preparedness. But they are under firm control. That makes it possible to engage in serious talks about resolving disputes, as in the case of the recent spy plane incident on Hainan island. On the other hand political stability is getting increasingly fragile throughout West Asia and North Africa.

Morocco's big neighbor Algeria is facing its worst domestic crisis since independence in 1962. Already reeling from a "dirty war" against Islamic militants, it made the enormous mistake of crushing protest from the Berbers, one of its few remaining supporters. Tremors from the killing of over 60 young Berbers are rippling out to its neighbor Morocco to the west. And, if the waves go eastward as well, Egypt could find itself hit from two sides, the other being the Palestinian Intifada.

Even more dangerous is growing instability in the Gulf. At least half of humanity depends on Gulf oil to fuel its vehicles. Giant Anglo-American corporations provide most of that oil. Taiwan reuniting with China will hardly make a ripple on the world scene. But if what little stability is left in the Middle East vanishes then huge tidal waves will batter the entire world.

Until 1979 America (behind the scenes), Saudi Arabia and Iran worked together to control world oil prices. Then came Khomeini and oil prices spiked upwards. But in the mid-nineties reformer Iranian president Khatemi resumed the cooperation. The Clinton White House began to smile at Teheran. But now Bush, as Reidel notes, has once again dubbed Iran a "rogue" state. The reason is that Iran is getting sophisticated weapons and nuclear reactors from a resurgent Russia.

Though gasoline prices at the pump are rising in the U.S., they are still relatively stable on world markets. But Washington fears that Saudi Arabia could once again hike them up as it did during the October 1973 war when Israeli soldiers commanded by Ariel Sharon crossed to the west bank of the Suez Canal and eyed Cairo.

Mubarak said in his interview that Sharon's policies are heading towards a regional catastrophe. Reidel speaks of an anti-Americanism in the region as the chief source of terrorism. What Mubarak says and Reidel hints at is that if Washington doesn't move to contain Sharon as it did in the Sinai in 1973, and in Lebanon in 1982-83, then the Middle East could slip out of all control and descend into "catastrophic terrorism."

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NCM: Middle Eastern
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