The world is being inundated with vast quantities of small arms and light weapons and there is strong evidence to suggest that their growing availability is fueling ethnic and internal warfare. Long discounted by arms control experts, the global trafficking in light weapons now poses the gravest threat to international peace and stability. PNS analyst Michael T. Klare teaches peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and is author of "Lethal Commerce: The Global Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons" (American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1995). (This is the second of three parts on global guns).

Long the stepchild of the campaign to curb the global arms race, small arms and light weapons have come into their own in the post-Cold War era. The wars that are killing people today in the hundreds of thousands are being fought not with conventional weapons systems -- tanks, heavy artillery, aircraft, warships -- but with guns, grenades, land mines and machetes.

Four trends in the diffusion of light weapons underscore why curbing them now constitutes the single most important task of the arms control community.

* Increased lethality: While light weapons are not known for their high-tech sophistication, there has also been a steady increase in their destructive power. Modern assault guns, for instance, can fire a burst of 30-35 bullets with one pull of the trigger. In Somalia, light anti-aircraft guns like the Soviet ZSU-23 were mounted on modified trucks ("technicals") and used with devastating effect against vehicles, low flying helicopters and urban strongpoints. Antipersonnel land have been made smaller and harder to detect, or packaged in plastic so as to foil discovery by metal-sensing detectors.

Research and development work now underway in many countries will make light weapons even more deadly and destructive in the future. The United States, for instance, plans to introduce a "revolutionary" type of gun that will combine a rifle and a grenade launcher in a single unit. Known as the Objective Individual Combat Weapon (OICW), the gun will fire a standard bullet as well as a new type of bursting munition that will explode like a grenade, flinging shrapnel in all directions.

* Proliferation of Arms-Making Technology: While the production of major weapons system is largely confined to a dozen or so major industrial powers, approximately 45 nations now produce light weapons of one sort or another, including 22 in the developing world. These newer producers have generally imported technology and know-how from the older producers (usually via licensing agreements). Many have gone on to become exporters of arms on their own. Israel, for instance, has sold its UZI submachine gun to 42 other countries and its Galil rifle to 15 other countries. Argentina and Brazil have sold domestically-made guns and other weapons to their neighbors in Latin America, while Egypt has sold its version of the AK-47 to other nations in Africa, including Rwanda.

* Dispersion of Cold War Stockpiles: The end of the Cold War has left the world with huge quantities of surplus weapons, many of which have begun to seep into world markets.

In some cases this redistribution is the product of deliberate government policy. The German government, for instance, has transferred many of the weapons it acquired from the now-defunct East German army to less affluent nations on NATO's southern rim, including Greece and Turkey. Similarly the United States is transferring millions of dollars' worth of surplus arms and ammunition to friendly governments through a reinvigorated "Excess Defense Articles" (EDA) program. Large quantities of surplus arms are also being transferred from NATO and Warsaw Pact stockpiles to other countries through normal trade channels.

Surplus Cold War weapons are also being dispersed around the world through illicit black market channels. These weapons will remain serviceable for years -- even decades -- to come. And because they are relatively inexpensive and widely dispersed, they are likely to fuel ethnic and internal conflicts well into the 21st century.

* Illicit Arms Trafficking: As more and more of the world's warfare stems from ethnic and internal conflicts, the new global combatants -- insurgents, separatist groups, ethnic militias -- must look outside commercial channels for their weaponry. Obviously, there are no detailed and accurate statistics on the illicit arms trade. But researchers estimate the various belligerents in Bosnia had obtained some $2 billion worth of illicit arms the previous year. Other internal conflicts, including those in Afghanistan, Angola, Colombia, Kurdistan, Liberia, Peru, Somalia, Sri Lanka and Sudan have also generated a significant demand for illicit arms.

Just as the United Nations seeks to prevent the buildup of destabilizing levels of major weapons in areas where there is a high risk of regional conflict, it should also strive to prevent destabilizing buildups of light and medium weapons in areas where there is a high risk of internal conflict. Efforts must also be made to collect and destroy weapons of war from ex-combatants following the cessation of fighting.

Most important, the world needs to establish a new international norm in the field of small arms and light weapons that states it is illegitimate for anyone to engage in sales or transfers of small arms and light weapons when the repercussions are likely to include an increase in civil violence, brutality and terrorism.

Without such efforts, the growing availability of light weapons makes it more likely that potential belligerents will choose violence over negotiations as the way to satisfy their grievances.