PACIFIC PULSE

---

More Than Two Players in Asian Power Game --
China's Asian Neighbors Draw Their Own Line in the Sea

By Thi Lam

Date: 11-25-96

The Clinton Administration has disavowed any ambition to "contain" China. But recent moves by China's Asian neighbors -- aroused by its sabre rattling and missile firings across the Taiwan Straits last July -- suggest they are determined to foil China's expansion into the oil rich regions to its south and east. PNS commentator Thi Lam is a former general in the Republic of South Vietnam, is the author of "Autopsy: The Death of South Vietnam" (1985).

Just as the Clinton Administration adopts a more conciliatory approach to China, Indonesia and Japan are drawing their own lines in the sea around the oil-rich regions to China's south and east. For now, at least, this harder edged approach may well have foiled China's aims of transforming the Western Pacific into a Chinese lake.

In September, Indonesia's massive air, land and sea maneuvers near the natural gas-rich Natuna Islands were meant to send an unequivocal signal that Jakarta is not about to abandon its claims on them. The Natunas, some 400 miles northeast of Sumatra, have been a subject of dispute since 1993, when Beijing published a map showing Chinese "historic claims" on a gas field northeast of the islands. Jakarta rejected these claims as without basis in international law.

China's long standing expansion to its southeast has gone largely unnoticed, despite occasional armed clashes with the Vietnamese and Philippine navies, but its recent dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea has attracted wide attention. The issue of these islands, eight uninhabited islets and reefs 115 miles northeast of Taiwan and called Daioyou by the Chinese, "has always been far more politicized than China's other border disputes because the Japanese are involved," says one Asia watcher. "But it is not in the interests of any party involved to see it escalate."

Asia watchers have every reason to be concerned about Japan's new assertiveness and military rearmament -- Japan has reportedly ordered the latest generation of Airborne Early Warning and Control planes, known as AWACs, from the U.S. and is considering buying its first spy satellite, which raises the specter of a militaristic empire and the chilling prospect of direct confrontation with China.

Japan and China have both had their eyes on the Senkakus ever since 1968 when a United Nations report stated the surrounding sea bed may contain one of the world's richest oil and gas reserves.

Beijing claims the islands have been a Chinese possession since the 16th century; Tokyo claims it annexed the Senkakus when it took over Okinawa in 1879 and further claims effective possession since 1973, when the United States handed the islands back to Japan after ending its post-war administration of Okinawa.

The most recent troubles began in August 1995 when the Japanese sent two fighter planes to prevent a Chinese plane from encroaching on the islands' air space. In July of this year, the government did not interfere when a group of right-wing activists installed a lighthouse on the island and two memorials on another.

Since that time, Japanese navy vessels have chased away Chinese activists from Hong Kong and Taiwan who tried to land on the islands to protest. In September, a protester from Hong Kong who wanted to raise the red flag of the People's Republic of China on the island was drowned, further inflaming the dispute.

This may be only the tip of a potentially explosive situation, spurred by China's territorial ambitions and Japan's readiness to assume a greater role in the region's security. China's southeastern expansionism has so far met with only token resistance, except for the Natunas. By contrast, the Senkakus, coming on the heels of China's unsuccessful attempt to intimidate the Taiwanese with war games, demonstrate that expansion eastward will run into strong opposition.

Without question, Indonesia's emergence as a regional power will be welcomed by southeast Asian nations concerned about China's assertiveness in the South China Sea. Japan's rearmament -- as edgy as it makes many Asians -- will likewise be seen as providing a needed strategic balance in Northeast Asia. This balance could be made more effective if the U.S. -Japan security alliance were to be expanded to include South Korea, itself an emerging economic power backed by a well-trained and highly motivated military. A recent visit by two Japanese navy vessels at Pusan, South Korea -- the first such visit since World War II -- was significant in this regard.

Half a century ago, it is widely believed, the naval battle at Midway marked the beginning of a reversal in Japan's fortunes in the South Pacific. Now it seems likely that two small island groups with exotic names may be the turning point of China's ambitions towards the Western Pacific -- with Japan now acting as the victim of aggression rather than the aggressor.

Ironically, Clinton may be holding out an olive branch to an ascendant China just when China's Asian neighbors have reminded it of history's lesson: that imperialism will ultimately run its course.