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South Asian Superpower Running Out of Power
By Andrew Robinson
Date: 03-05-97
No less a figure than Microsoft chief Bill Gates has officially welcomed India to the 21st Century as a potential "software superpower." Speaking in Delhi, he did note this would require some "investment in basic infrastructure." Under the circumstances, writes PNS correspondent Andrew Robinson from New Delhi, where every house has a supply of candles, this may be something of an understatement. Robinson is a writer who has lived in India and Bangladesh for the last five years. See also the sidebar, "INDIA'S BEARABLE DARKNESS OF BEING"
NEW DELHI -- The topic is "virtual communities," the speaker a Silicon Graphics rep, the setting a "CyberCity" exhibition. A slick multi-media presentation and a large screen video projection of the speaker flank the platform. The whole scene is brightly illuminated by an overhead chandelier. In the audience, hundreds of corporate delegates and local journalists hang on every word.
You might think this country of 900 million was truly on the brink of the Information Age. But without a special back-up generator, there might be no CyberCity exhibition at all. Because India, which Bill Gates calls the next "Software Superpower," is running short of the one thing that makes electronic data communications possible -- electricity.
Power outages have long been a fact of life in India, and candles, re-chargeable lamps, power converters and generators are as much a part of urban Indian homes as the vacuum cleaner in the U.S.
The real cause for alarm is that in this "developing" country, supposedly rising from Third World mendicancy into the more respectable realm of free market consumership, the power situation is getting worse. "It is a great achievement that since independence our power generation has risen from 1,700 megawatts to over 80,000 megawatts," says V. Gopalacharienu Gopalachari, India's Minister of Power. "But we didn't expect such an increase in demand -- we were focusing all our energies on generation, not consumption and distribution. That is why the power situation in the country has been getting worse day by day."
Here in Delhi, summer has not yet started, the ceiling fans, air conditioners, even many refrigerators are in deep hibernation, and still the city is drawing far more electricity than it can afford. Six-hour cuts are an everyday occurrence in this megalopolis of 11 million, and the Central Electricity Authority threatens to cut the power supply indefinitely if Delhi does not pay its electricity dues soon [see sidebar].
But the problem is hardly confined to Delhi. "It's funny that people complain about the situation in Delhi," says Alok Brara, editor-in-chief of PowerLine magazine, an industry trade publication. "Most people in India would be happy with 16 hours of electricity per day. There are many towns that get one or two hours a day -- sometimes they don't get power for weeks."
Even in Bangalore, the "Silicon Valley of South Asia," power outages last eight to ten hours per day. Last April, industrial consumers in the Ernakulam district of Kerala, India's most socially and economically prosperous state, were without electricity for nearly three weeks. As a result, many industries were forced to lay off workers, riots broke out and people threatened to burn substations. Electricity cuts have sparked violent outbursts in small towns throughout the country.
Experts explain the crisis in a variety of ways -- government mismanagement, corruption, politicized distribution of state-controlled power, excessive subsidies for farmers, reluctance to privatize, an unworkable billing system.
And theft. "I wanted to pay for my electricity connection," says Harbans Singh, who owns a shop in Delhi's crowded Sadar Bazaar market. Like many shop owners, Singh (not his real name) draws power through a wire illegally connected to a nearby electric pole. "But after I sent in the application and paid the initial fee, the electricity people demanded bribes before they would install the connection. It was cheaper and easier for me to connect illegally and pay off the police."
India appears to be mired in a typical developing country conundrum. For every one percent rise in GNP, the government estimates, demand for electricity goes up by 1.6 percent. In effect, the very effort to modernize, to be appealing in the global environment -- installing more computer networks, illuminating chandeliers at convention centers, building more air-conditioned offices and hotels to court foreign investors -- is depleting India's ability to generate enough electricity for its citizens.
Such dilemmas have become more and more common since India inaugurated economic liberalization in 1991. As a country with over 300 million consumers, India represents a vast, untapped market -- but as a country emerging after nearly half a century of economic isolation, its markets are also quite impressionable -- their demands as easily created as filled.
So there is general pride in the opening of a McDonald's restaurant, or the arrival of the Ford Escort on Delhi's streets -- so jammed with cars that 40 percent of the city's children suffer from asthma largely attributable to vehicular emissions -- or a CyberCity exhibition.
An even greater anomaly is the fact that people in India -- where saving money, food, water, electricity, plastic containers, anything of the slightest value is virtually a part of the culture -- are now being encouraged to consume more.
"Yes, the older generation will say the standard of living was better 50 years ago," says Brara. "But they didn't have as many demands back then either."
And that may be the most remarkable aspect of India's development as it begins to celebrate the 50th anniversary of its independence this August -- a dramatic shift from a society of complacent civil servants to a society of ambitious consumers. Whatever this portends the current government under Prime Minister Deve Gowda seems disinclined to reverse it, no matter how much it strains the country's supply of such things as water, oil and electricity. And given the current global economic environment, the government may have no choice but to illuminate the possibilities of foreign investment, even if it means leaving the reality of Indian life in the dark.
SIDEBAR-- 395 WORDS
INDIA'S BEARABLE DARKNESS OF BEING
The average visitor to India won't experience many power cuts -- hotels have back-up generators, and tourists rarely venture out to small towns and villages. In fact, the average citizen of India is not troubled by them, either -- 78 percent of households are not connected to any electricity at all, according to PowerLine magazine.
Although India's manufacturing sector with over 6,500 registered companies is second only to that of the U.S., its per capita consumption of electricity -- at 320 kilowatt hours per year -- is one of the world's lowest: one sixtieth that of Canada, a fifth that of South Korea, less than half China's. And most electricity production is concentrated in agricultural and industrial zones, as well as in the more exclusive neighborhoods of large cities.
The Minister of Power blames shortages on the power boards. "We have 18 or 19 different boards operating on the state level. Each board is controlled by the political party that controls the state, not by the center. This allows political favors and economically unsound subsidies, regardless of capacity."
Over 90 percent of India's generating capacity is government-owned, 70 percent of that by state boards, 30 percent by the central government. About 70 percent of all power comes from thermal plants (mostly coal-powered), 26% is hydroelectric, 3% nuclear. The country has begun opening to foreign investment, most notably when Maharashtra state signed a contract for a 2,015 megawatt project with U.S.-based Enron. Hindu political parties attacked that project as "anti-people," unduly expensive, environmentally damaging, and yet another example of Western intrusion into India, like Pepsi, Kentucky Fried Chicken, and MTV, and it is only now, after many years of arduous renegotiations and court review, that the project is finally getting off the ground.
"The state electricity boards are in such bad shape, the entire infrastructure so unable to cope with demand, that foreign investment is clearly the only way out," says Brara. "But there's also no question that these foreign investors are less interested in making sure the majority of Indian's have access to electricity than in turning a profit."
If Brara is right, it may be quite some time before power cuts in India actually become socially agreed-upon irritants, more than just a way of life, or the privilege of those who have power in the first place.

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