Warnings of war have darkened the already grim picture of conditions in North Korea, and it is difficult to find much reason for optimism in a situation which has persisted for nearly 50 years. Yet there are a few encouraging signs, and with some relatively minor changes in policy and attitude, a peaceful and cooperative Korea might become a reality according to PNS correspondents by Johan Galtung and Dietrich Fischer. Galtung is a professor of peace studies at several universities and director of TRANSCEND, a peace and development network. Fischer, a professor at Pace University, is co-director of TRANSCEND.

A warning that North Korea is intent on waging war has increased tensions in the region -- especially as the warning comes from Hwang Jang Yop, the high-ranking North Korean defector, who says the country's leaders see war as a way out of its desperate economic situation.

At the same time, there have been renewed efforts to finally bring an official end to the Korean war through four-party talks involving South and North Korea, the United States and China.

Many foreign observers expected Korea to reunite after the Cold War, as Germany did in 1990. However, Korea's division has its own dynamics. Willy Brandt's conciliatory policy toward the east, in the early 1970s, made West Germany attractive to East Germans. South Korea, by contrast, takes an unfriendly line, even gloating about the north's economic crisis.

Koreans tend to perceive compromise as weakness and this implies loss of face. They harbor deep feelings of injustice -- the term "han" denotes a kind of deep sorrow and bitterness. A persistent, strong Confucian tradition means that Koreans tend to be hard-working -- an attitude that can be difficult when combined with frustration and anger.

Korea's neighbors may prefer a divided country, relieved that it consumes some of its pent-up zeal in mutual propaganda wars. However, that situation is not stable -- it could erupt in war at any moment, even if neither side expects to win. Both sides would participate simply to preserve honor and display courage.

Hardliners on both sides dream of absorbing the other side through military conquest or inner collapse, but this is unlikely. Mutual isolation is likely as people are accustomed to it, but undesirable. Korean nationalism will not die, only hibernate -- and could reawaken suddenly.

The most promising approach involves a series of steps leading to economic interaction between North and South Korea, and ultimately to political cooperation and security.

These would require some changes in attitude. For example, South Korean students advocating contact with the North have been ignored and treated like criminals, but experience in Eastern Europe and the Philippines has shown that a nonviolent response can be far more productive. Students can make concrete proposals. If some are rejected, they can be put forward again -- demanding national debate. Democracy means dialogue, not only electioneering.

South Koreans seem to believe they can bring a regime to its knees by withholding funds, and the government discourages South Korean industrial conglomerates from investing in North Korea. This policy has not worked in Cuba, and it will hardly work in North Korea.

One promising proposal involves a regional free trade zone. It could include the five countries with strong Mahayana Buddhist and/or Confucian traditions -- North and South Korea, China, Japan and Vietnam. The armistice line in Korea could be opened for rail and road traffic, allowing a high-speed link between Beijing and Tokyo with rapid trains passing through North and South Korea and a hydrofoil across the Korea strait. This would greatly expand economic activity to the benefit of all. Indeed, the region could become a locomotive for the entire world economy.

These five countries are culturally different but have greater similarities than the European countries now in the process of unification. They have been enemies, but Germany has apologized to its neighbors and is now a member of the European Union. Of course, Japan needs to apologize as well.

A conference similar to the Helsinki conference which was so important in ending the Cold War, could lead to an Organization for Security and Cooperation in East Asia. It could cooperate closely with the United States and Russia, without necessarily including them as members.

Certainly there are many Koreans eager to build a more peaceful and prosperous future, instead of squandering resources on a futile arms race and mutual recrimination about the past. They deserve our support.