Recent Justice Dept. figures showing a distinct drop in juvenile crime have evidently surprised some experts who predicted a new wave of superpredators would sweep through the country in a "bloodbath of teen violence." Their sudden change of tone would be amusing -- except that their rhetoric has served, and is still serving, to justify particularly harsh treatment of young offenders. Vincent Schiraldi is director of the Justice Policy Institute in Washington, DC. Mark Kappelhoff is legislative counsel for the American Civil Liberties Union.

Recent figures showing a drop in juvenile crime across America have some "experts" who warned of a new generation of "superpredators" seeking forgiveness for being so far off in their predictions. The effect would be comical -- except that the pundits' pronouncements are still being used to justify ever more draconian policies directed against younger and younger kids.

It has been interesting to watch some of the country's best-known researchers backing off. For example, Princeton professor John Dilulio, who warned of a "rising wave of superpredators" primed to prey on society, has recently adopted a more sober tone. Most "juvenile offenders are not guilty of repeated or random acts of serious violence," he wrote last month in an op ed in the New York Times. "Most kids who get into serious trouble need adult guidance. And they won't find suitable role models in prison."

Taking a somewhat different tack is Northeastern University Professor James Allen Fox, who last year warned of a "teenage time bomb" that would explode into a "bloodbath of teenage violence." After the new data were released, Fox simply proclaimed that he "never meant there would be a blood bath. Some of it was part of getting people's attention."

And that it did, in spades. As Dilulio, Fox, and others sounded the alarm, many politicians rushed to dismantle the juvenile justice system by erasing distinctions between young and adult offenders. As a result, many children are now imprisoned with adults. For them, the experts' retractions have come too late.

Dilulio proved particularly adept at fanning the flames of hysteria, and his fingerprints can be found on nearly all the juvenile justice bills introduced in congress over the last three years. Many contain the term "super predator" or cite his statistics.

Florida Representative Bill McCollum led the way last year with the "Violent Youth Predator Act" reintroduced this year under a more restrained title, the "Juvenile Crime Control Act." It calls for confining children as young as 13 with adult offenders, denying federal funds to states that do not try 13-year-olds as adults, and abolishing the federal agency charged with preventing juvenile crime. The bill should come before House some time in May.

When Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee tried to modify the bill, Dilulio warned "head-in-the-sand word games won't obviate the fact that this nation is threatened by large numbers of remorseless young predators."

Dilulio worked closely with the press to spread his message, even donning a leather jacket and posing before a graffiti-covered wall to illustrate a story on "A Teenage Time Bomb" for Time magazine.

But Dilulio's data has consistently failed to withstand scrutiny. Juveniles accounted for a smaller percentage of arrests, and committed a smaller share of serious crimes, in 1992 than in 1982. In 1994, fewer than one in two hundred juveniles in America were arrested for a violent offense.

The one area in which juvenile crime has shown a marked and significant increase over the past decade is handgun killings. To his credit, Prof. Fox has consistently alerted policy makers to the role of guns in juvenile violence. McCollum has voted against laws designed to curb gun use, and Dilulio has written that "the it's-all-guns school makes such noise by firing blanks."

But blanks are not being fired by inner-city youth. From 1984 to 1994, handgun killings by kids increased fourfold, while most categories of juvenile crime stayed steady (including homicides that did not involve a handgun). And these tend to be impulsive acts abetted by cheap, available handguns.

Academics and politicians should have the guts to accept responsibility for being wrong. They need to go to the president, congress, the media, and say "It's the guns, stupid!" They should encourage Congress to impose the same standards on guns made in America as they do on imported guns -- something we do with automobiles -- and so end production of "Saturday Night Specials."

They also need to preach crime prevention, not only punishment. It is no secret that children who go to good schools, receive quality heath care, have good recreational opportunities and eat well are much less likely to matriculate in the world of crime.