Kenya, generally considered one of Africa's most steady and peaceful countries, has been rocked by disturbances in recent weeks. Protesters are intent on constitutional changes which the government of Daniel Arap Moi, president for 19 years, has steadfastly resisted. For PNS commentator Steven Were Omamo, the situation is very much a product of economic modernization, and the solution is very much dependent on the country's history. Omamo is a writer and agricultural economist based in Nairobi, and a Rockefeller Foundation Social Science Research Fellow at the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute.

The political situation in my home, Kenya, has been so tense of late that many people fear the worst. At least seven demonstrators were killed early in July, and almost every day newspapers carry stories of violence and destroyed property as government security forces clash with private citizens. But even at this difficult time, I find myself hopeful for the future and encouraged by what I see.

In my opinion, the many confrontations we have witnessed share a common root. The issue is whether our political system, particularly in this election year, will be governed by the patronage of President Daniel Arap Moi and those around him or by the voice of the people?

This contest is driven by the process of economic change -- with rapid and complex developments in technology and in the larger society, Kenya is one of the countries at the crest of the wave of economic liberalization sweeping the globe.

Some Kenyans look upon these changes optimistically, confident that they will bring wealth to all and allow us to fulfill our democratic ambitions. Others are less sure, and fear losing their own liberties in a world overshadowed by distant institutions and economic powers. But all Kenyans are acutely aware that the government can lend a decisive hand to the forces of change.

Economic liberalization is clearly generating new wealth, but in Kenya's top-heavy system, this new wealth is not shared by all citizens. Those whose hands were already on the levers of power -- aware that the government can influence who benefits from new trading opportunities -- are loath to relinquish their positions.

Moi's government thus is widely viewed as an engine of domination instead of the agent of popular will, more interested in maintaining old forms of influence and patronage for a minority than in expanding opportunity for the majority. This, I believe, is the root of our current troubles.

The more I think about all this, the more people I speak with, the more convinced I am that there exists in Kenya today a grand coalition of voters who have more to gain from equality than from Presidential favor. And this is the core issue.

If the upcoming election is free and fair, it will be a referendum on liberty versus power -- on the character of our future. That is just what the current government fears most, the reason it has long refused to discuss changing our Constitution to give opposition groups a fair chance of capturing the Presidency and the Legislature.

For the opposition, the crux of the problem is that no one party is strong enough to win a general election on its own. A coalition of parties could prevail, but the constitution will not allow a coalition government.

Given the government's iron grip on power, the battle might appear to be lost. But I see a glimmer of hope in Kenyan history, in our long struggle for political independence from Britain. A key legacy of this struggle is the understanding that political engagement is a right of all citizens and an appropriate response to community and national crisis. Try as it might, the government just cannot beat down this spirit, which, paradoxically, President Moi has helped sustain over the years by frequently appealing to our nationalist ideals to score political points, especially against foreigners.

This spirit underlies the good leadership being shown by key opposition figures and by several religious leaders who have repeatedly risked their lives by agitating for change. More important, it underlies ordinary Kenyans' loyalty to the opposition as many of us, in our own little ways, choose liberty over patronage.

Just now, the scent of compromise is in the air. President Moi is a wily politician, and it may be he is listening to moderate voices within his party telling him that Kenyans will bear only so much brutality, loss of life, and disruption of commerce before demonstrations become less peaceful.

The President caught the reformists off-guard by suddenly agreeing to meetings involving government and opposition leaders and representatives from religious groups to discuss political reform. Though clearly bowing to pressure, he has retained the upper hand. The meetings thus might fail to bring real change.

But I am confident that liberty and reason will prevail over raw power. Our collective memory says this is inevitable. That is why I believe that the Kenya my sons will inherit will not only be peaceful, but a Kenya in which life-chances will have more to do with their own personalities and their parents' investments in them than with somebody else's access to, and abuse of, power.