In October 1973, as Watergate revelations were unfolding, Washington's strategists blamed Nixon for having lost control in the Middle East. In August 1974 he resigned. Now, too, as the Monica-gate scandal heats up, Clinton is widely perceived as having lost control over the price of oil. Beyond fending off accusations caused by the scandal, his biggest challenge may be to repair a bungled Mideast policies. PNS editor Franz Schurmann, a professor emeritus of history and sociology at the University of California, Berkeley, has written several books on global politics.

The kiss of death for President Clinton may not be Monica-gate but a widening perception among Washington strategists that he has lost control over the crucial lever of global well being -- the price of oil.

With Arafat's visit to Washington upstaged by the Monica Lewinsky revelations, some have blamed the scandal for hobbling the Mideast peace process. But the stalemate in Israeli-Palestinian relations was reached well before the scandal broke. And in any event, Washington's strategists have always seen the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as secondary to the "great game" of big power oil rivalries.

In the fall of 1990 President Bush scored big in that great game. He put together an international coalition which supported what soon became the American led Operation Desert Storm. Key members of the coalition were Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, France, the Soviet Union, Britain and -- at least tacitly -- China.

Now that coalition is crumbling, and many strategists blame that on Clinton's ineptness. More important, they believe his bungling is now causing serious tremors in the global economy.

The biggest tremor is the alarming decline in oil prices. No commodity is so involved with every aspect of the global economy as oil. Stable oil prices are a major assurance of the global market's health. But when those prices soar or plunge big trouble soon follows.

Late last year Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan issued an unexpected warning about deflation (falling prices). Unchecked deflation can lead to severe recession or even depression.

What likely prompted Greenspan's speech was a decision by OPEC to lift its ceiling on oil output. And most ominous was key U.S. oil ally Saudi Arabia's support of that move. Early this month, according to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Japan's Wall Street Journal, the Saudi National Oil Corporation sent a FAX to all major Japanese companies informing them of even cheaper oil to come.

For over half a century America has relied on the Saudi monarchy to keep world oil prices stable. That link broke down during the October 1973 Arab-Israeli war when the Saudis caused oil prices to rise by 400 percent. They were enraged over Nixon's bungling during the unexpected "Yom Kippur" war. The result was a great oil crisis followed by the severe 1974-75 recession.

The U.S.-Saudi alliance was restored when Ford replaced Nixon. It became strained during the Carter period but didn't snap. It performed brilliantly during the 1990-91 Gulf War. While Bush put together the mighty coalition against Iraq, the Saudis kept world oil prices stable.

Late last year the Saudis made a big move away from the U.S. link through rapprochement with Iran, Washington's arch-enemy. And around the same time they made an OPEC move similar to that of October 1971 -- though this time causing oil prices to plunge rather than to soar.

Clinton's diplomacy has also been hit hard by a parallel rapprochement between Iran and Iraq -- the Iraqi delegation was the first to arrive at the Teheran Islamic conference last December. Equally detrimental was Teheran's snubbing of the U.S. government in favor of directly addressing the American public.

But from the viewpoint of American security the most dangerous threat has come from France and Russia whose oil companies are offering ominous competition to the Anglo-American oil monopoly. And Saddam Hussein has been cleverly playing his France and Russia cards against America.

In October 1973, as Watergate revelations were unfolding, Washington's strategists blamed Nixon for having lost control in the Middle East. In August 1974 he resigned. His successor Vice-President Gerald Ford restored the Saudi link and in 1975 worked with France to launch the Group of Seven Industrial Nations (G-7). And despite a terrible but brief inflational spiral, the global economy started moving again.

The strategists may believe that only a new president can achieve a similar feat now-- halting deflation, reviving production, especially in East Asia, and returning prosperity to the global economy. Clinton's biggest challenge now appears to be to repair the damage his bungled Mideast policies have brought about while fending off Monica-gate.