Reassuring buzzwords like "restraint," "reform," and "dialogue" make it clear that at least some U.S. officials think Indonesian President Suharto resignation will stabilize the situation there. But without strenuous leadership from Congress, the U.S. will find itself supporting a military dictatorship, possibly disguised behind a new civilian face. PNS analyst Peter Dale Scott, a former Canadian diplomat, has authored numerous books and articles on U.S. foreign affairs.

Without strenuous leadership from Congress, the United States may soon find itself supporting a military dictatorship in Indonesia, possibly disguised behind a new civilian face.

Washington is clearly expecting an early departure by Indonesian President Suharto. But its displeasure with him is not because he is a ruthless tyrant who gained power by killing perhaps a million of his own countrymen. Rather, it is because they feel he is now too weak to impose the "reform" package of the International Monetary Fund.

The Administration's unswerving support for the IMF plan leaves it no choice but to turn to its traditional ally for dealing with the Indonesian people: the Indonesian army. The package, although only partially in place, has already contributed to unemployment and even starvation of Indonesia's poor. No democratic government would either wish or be able to impose such hardships.

The Indonesian army itself is polarizing around two conflicting responses to the public protests. One, said to be associated with Defense Minister Wiranto, has been tolerant of the student protests and may even be encouraging them as a means of persuading Suharto to resign.

A more repressive faction, linked to Suharto's son-in-law General Prabowo, has not only reacted violently to the demonstrations but taken steps to foment more violence. In particular, Prabowo has backed a propaganda campaign designed to scapegoat the ethnic Chinese as a source of economic gouging, rather than pointing to the $40 billion family fortune of Suharto (reportedly the world's sixth richest man) and his cronies like Prabowo himself.

Some army elements have taken the lead in exciting anti-Chinese violence, according to several reports from the country, even trucking in rioters in some cases. These actions, reminiscent of the army-inspired rioting in 1965, would serve the interests of those who believe that their own political future would not survive Suharto's. They see violence as a way to pre-empt a peaceful campaign to expel the president.

The CIA and Pentagon have close links to both Wiranto and Prabowo. Secretary of Defense William Cohen visited both in January and spent three hours with Prabowo reviewing the dreaded Kopassus Red Berets, the special forces who have massacred thousands in East Timor.

Videotapes of one such massacre roused Congress to terminate U.S. military training programs in Indonesia by law in 1992. A loophole in the law allowed the Pentagon to continue quietly to train Kopassus and other units until May 9 of this year, when protests from Congress led to the announced suspension of all training programs for the Indonesian Army.

Washington would prefer a less violent transition -- as is clear from the buzzwords like "restraint," "reform," and "dialogue" resonating in the U.S. media. However, the Indonesian Army has ignored U.S. appeals for "restraint" in the past and has not been penalized.

Can Congress prevent another outbreak of slaughter? There is, now, a strong human rights lobby, including groups like the East Timor Action Network (ETAN), which has moved Congress to modify U.S. support for terror and death squads, in Indonesia and elsewhere.

If Congress hopes to see a more democratic Indonesia, it will have to establish political conditions for all U.S. aid, including aid dispensed through the IMF. The IMF bailout package at $40 billion is about equal to the Suharto family fortune -- which suggests that the rich, not the poor, should make the sacrifices necessary to restart the Indonesian economy.

These conditions should include liberalized rights to speech and organizing, holding democratic elections as soon as possible, and an internationally supervised referendum on the issue of East Timorese independence.

With such pressure, Indonesia could move towards democracy as have the Philippines and South Korea. Without it, Indonesia will remain a polarized society that can only be pacified by a ruthless military.