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PACIFIC PULSE

Has Clinton "Given Away" Taiwan?

By George Koo

Date: 07-07-98

For Taiwan, the clear message of President Clinton's recent trip to China is that the United States will no longer be playing such a direct role in the long-running negotiations between Taiwan and the mainland. This may prove helpful on all sides, according to PNS commentator George Koo, who sees the two reuniting in fact as well as in name. Koo is an independent business consultant, former Chairman of Silicon Valley based Asian American Manufacturers Association, a Human Relations Commissioner of Mountain View, Ca. and a member of Committee of 100, a national organization of prominent Chinese Americans.

The growing buzz in Washington centers on whether President Bill Clinton has reneged on the U.S. commitment to Taiwan.

In Shanghai, Clinton said, "We support one China," and reiterated three "nos"--no Taiwan independence, no two Chinas and no membership for Taiwan in international organizations that require sovereignty. This has made many members of Congress, along with a flock of pundits and commentators, ask whether Taiwan has been "given" to mainland China.

Former ambassador to China Winston Lord pointed out on Jim Lehrer's News Hour that President Clinton merely reiterated the basic principles of communiqués executed by Presidents Nixon, Ford and Carter. Taiwan's President Lee Teng Hui agreed that President Clinton said nothing during his trip to the mainland that could become a new bone of contention. Privately, he may have wished that Clinton had let the sleeping dog lie.

Taiwan will now have to adjust its behavior towards the mainland on the assumption that the American lion will be watching with interest but from a distance.

This is not necessarily bad news for the people of Taiwan. Until now, negotiations between Taipei and Beijing have been like shadow boxing. When one side proposes something concrete, the other finds reasons to back off. Each partner moves to its own rhythm, not necessarily in sync with the other and both have been influenced by the role of the United States.

Now that the U.S. has announced it will not be in the room, both parties will have to deal with the issues frankly and realistically, and only with each other. And, reaching accord will be good for the Chinese--on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

Most people in Taiwan have strong ties with mainland China. It is Taiwan's favorite tourist destination, receiving over a million visitors annually. Since reform began in China, over 2,500 students from Taiwan have received degrees from mainland universities.

Taiwan is also the second largest investor in China, after Hong Kong, with investment roughly twice the $20 billion the U.S. has invested in China. China needs Taiwan's manufacturing prowess and understanding of high technology markets. Taiwan needs the mainland's low cost base and the huge market.

Although some members of the US Congress are convinced that Taiwan is gripped with the fever for independence, recent polls indicate about 25% of the people in Taiwan favor independence, a somewhat smaller percentage favor reunification, while the majority favors the status quo. One poll in late June found 69 percent want to establish direct links with the mainland, rejecting the country's official ban on direct mail, direct flights and shipping and direct trade.

Even without the benefit of direct linkage, Taiwan-China trade has reached over $20 billion annually. Taiwan's exports exceed imports from mainland by about 4 to 1 -- a trade surplus greater than Taiwan's total trade deficit. Clearly, the mainland is too important an economic partner to be taken lightly.

Direct linkage across will not only facilitate economic development and tourism but alleviate mistrust and promote official cooperation.

Chinese people, from the mainland or Taiwan, are strongly pragmatic and short on ideology. Even if they do not identify with the current Beijing government, and many do not, the people of Taiwan acknowledge their Chinese heritage. They do not fear but are proud of a strong China. They are, after all, compatriots.

President Clinton has cleared the air. Left to their own devices Taipei and Beijing will find a peaceful and mutually accommodating solution. Sooner or later, Taiwan will reunite with the rest of China in fact as well as in name. Taiwan is not available for anyone to give away.

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