Despite considerable confusion and disagreement about the nature and purpose of the projectile recently fired from North Korea, it has had striking effects. Taken together, according to PNS commentator Yoichi Clark Shimatsu, they may mark a change in relations in the Pacific. Shimatsu, former editor of the English-language Japan Times Weekly, is a freelance journalist based in Tokyo.

TOKYO -- The tabloid headlines read "North Korea launches ICBM." The North Koreans said it was not a missile, but a scientific satellite, designed to orbit the earth, launched in part to celebrate the country's 50th anniversary. They said it would broadcast a song dedicated to Kim Jong-Il, who is being installed as the country's new supreme leader.

Whatever it was, it fell into the Pacific Ocean only about 1,000 miles from its launching pad -- after crossing over northern Japan. And it has suddenly changed the power terms in the region.

If Pyongyang can put a satellite into orbit, it can send a warhead to the continental United States. Multiple warheads in low orbit simply move too fast to intercept, and this is likely to be true even in the future despite Pentagon claims about anti-missile systems under development.

Western intelligence sources estimate that Pyongyang has between two and five nuclear bombs. However, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported two years ago that North Korea has acquired red mercury, a heavy compound which makes it possible to build many small bombs with relatively little plutonium.

Gwynne Roberts, a British filmmaker who has traveled extensively in Russia for his series "Pocket Neutron," has confirmed that North Korean buyers have repeatedly visited a lab in Ekaterinburg, in the Urals, which produces the substance.

Though it has signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, North Korea has effectively become one of the developing countries, led by India and Pakistan, acting to end the nuclear weapons monopoly of the major powers.

One striking effect of the launch has been to expose strains in the U.S.-Japan security pact. Under this bilateral treaty, the U.S. is supposed to share its satellite intelligence with Japan, whenever regional security threats are involved.

But Tokyo received its first notification of the missile launch from Seoul -- long before the U.S. report came, 15 hours after the launch. It seems likely that the satellite imagery and data from monitoring ships off North Korea was analyzed and extensively discussed in Washington before it was released to Tokyo.

In a heated response, the Chief Cabinet Secretary declared that Japan will launch its own spy satellite as soon as possible instead of relying on the U.S.

In Japan, a chorus of conservative defense analysts and politicians is demanding that Japan maintain its own national security rather than have its hands tied by the Americans. With North Korean missiles capable of hitting U.S. bases all over the Pacific, the 45,000 American troops based on Japanese territory have become de facto political hostages, a magnet for attack and, therefore, a liability. Tellingly, the North Korean missile passed over the large U.S. air base at Misawa, notorious for its jet jockeys who have had dozens of near-misses with commercial airliners.

The '90s have been cruel to Japan. Not only has its economic bubble burst, its geopolitical sphere is shrinking. China, Taiwan, both Koreas and Russia have been overtly challenging Japan's claim to its maritime boundaries.

Further, the recent expansion of the U.S.-Japan defense guidelines, extending joint military operations at least on paper, has only resulted in more pressure from neighboring countries. The North Korean launch can, thus, be seen as part of a regional backlash against the anachronistic bilateral treaty.

If the launch was an attempt to bypass Japan and deal directly with the United States, it may have succeeded. Since the satellite or missile was sent aloft, representatives of the two countries, meeting in New York, have announced progress in talks on reducing "nuclear tensions" on the Korean peninsula.