The sinking of a torpedo boat, the most serious military encounter in Korea since 1953, brings news of a new plan involving U.S. and South Korean forces. This plan could bring the orderly reunification so many desire -- or lead to chaos and war. A related story offers a summary of this plan as put forth in the Chinese language World Journal. PNS associate editor Franz Schurmann writes extensively on international affairs. He is Professor Emeritus from UC Berkeley and author of "The Logic of World Power" and "The Foreign Politics of Richard Nixon."

Last week, a North Korean torpedo boat was sunk with 30 lives lost in a clash with South Korean naval forces in the Yellow Sea. It was the most serious South-North encounter since July 1953, when an armistice ended the Korean War.

This was reported on June 16. That day, the Chinese-language World Journal published an article about a new joint U.S.-South Korea (ROK) battle plan.

Until last year, the plan called for immediate deployment of forces if North Korea launched a serious attack across the demarcation line. Now, however, deployment will be ordered even if there are only "signs" that North Korea is planning an attack.

Both battle plans call for taking over all of North Korea. The new plan estimates this will take from 48 to 120 days.

North Korean sources have been warning about the possibility of war around June 25, the 49th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War. And South Korean sources have said North Korea has moved missiles with chemical warheads to its side of the demarcation line. President Clinton has ordered a nuclear carrier battle group into the Yellow Sea.

Yet military movements alone do not lead to war. An editorial in the Chinese-language Lianhe Zaobao of Singapore (June 18) suggested a different causation: "The clash between South and North Korea not only reveals the enmity between two peoples of identical culture and race but also that great powers are pushing each of them from behind. It's not impossible that another proxy war could break out."

Chinese concerns about war in East Asia started growing last November when President Jiang Zemin's much-hailed visit to Japan ended in fiasco. Chinese officials blamed it on a newly powerful Japanese ultra-right determined to re-arm Japan and make it the dominant East Asian power.

These currents of fear are getting bigger this year as Japan's ultra-right and conservative parties have concluded an alliance which has a good chance of winning in the coming elections.

Adding to Chinese fears is ratification of new "guidelines" of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. Both countries now agree to deploy armed forces if a serious threat against either arises in a "periphery" that includes Korea, Taiwan and China.

The official Chinese People's Daily has accused the U.S. of seeking to become "Lord of the Earth." The Chinese are bitter about Kosovo, and may now be concerned that a Kosovo II could come about on the Korean peninsula.

The Korean War ended in 1953 with an armistice. There has never been a peace treaty in Korea. Both South and North Koreans yearn for reunification. If the new U.S.-ROK battle plan is invoked this summer then it will be South Korea which seeks reunification.

Could another attempt to reunify the Korean peninsula this time succeed? North Korea, wracked by famine, is weak, as was East Germany by spiritual depression before the Berlin Wall came down in November 1989. East Germany was then absorbed into West Germany by and large in an orderly fashion. That's one possibility if North Korea is taken.

But Korean War II could also lead to a new Cold War between the U.S. and Japan on one side and China (and maybe Russia) on the other. That in turn could lead to the progression Cold War -----> Hot War -----> World Chaos.