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Rhetoric-Rattling Clouds Reality of Taiwan-China Relations
By Ling-Chi Wang
Date: 08-09-99
Taiwan's premier has stirred up a storm of words and bluster with his rejection of China's long-standing view of his country as province of the mainland. But despite the noise, according to PNS commentator Ling-Chi Wang , there is little chance of actual physical conflict. Wang chairs the Ethnic Studies Department at the University of California-Berkeley.
The rhetoric flowing in every direction makes war with China over Taiwan seem a distinct possibility.
But the reality is very different.
The bottom line for the United States is that not one single drop of American blood will be spilled over Taiwan. U.S. handling of the Balkan wars with "zero casualties" is the best example of this attitude -- call it timidity or respect for the sanctity of life, or what you will. That is the reality.
Taiwan's premier, Lee Teng-hui, has been drawing on his wealth of knowledge of U.S. politics and doing everything he can to drag Uncle Sam into the cross-strait conflict -- making generous political and "charitable" donations, hiring high-power lobbyists, defying China's definition of his country's status, and taking risky steps in the hope of igniting a fire that will precipitate an U.S. military and/or political intervention in the region.
No credible U.S. military experts have come out in support of Lee's folly. They know what it means to be embroiled in a war with China and have some sense of the economic and political consequences of such a war for the world.
Meanwhile, liberal and conservative critics alike make doomsday proposals against China without being held accountable. Demonizing China in the name of freedom, human rights, and equality makes good coalition politics, whichever side of the spectrum you're on.
China's leaders, less familiar with U.S.-style political spin artistry, are taking the bait and getting agitated, with some military leaders advocating an all-out response now rather than later. This seems highly unlikely, even in light of China's recent Dong Feng-31 missile test and the seizing of a Taiwanese freighter off the China coast. Nor are the young people in China and Taiwan, especially the educated and affluent, prepared to die en masse for either national sovereignty or independence.
The rising temperature in East Asia is not something anyone wants to see -- not in China, not in Japan, and not anywhere in the region. Any misstep could lead to "accidental war" and global disaster.
This is why Clinton has been irritated, to put it mildly, by Lee's latest provocation. Unfortunately, Clinton can do very little to ease tensions except pray for moderation from both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Jawboning has not worked so far.
In fact, against his better judgment, Clinton has poured some fuel into the fire to appease his pro-Taiwan critics on both the left and the right in the U.S. Congress and the media.
Clinton's decision to go ahead with the sale of more advanced weapons to Taiwan is the clearest indication of this. It offers a perfect example of how U.S. domestic politics can interfere with and indeed undermine sound diplomacy at a critical time when reason must take precedence over political folly and demagoguery.
The United States can be its own worst enemy when we make ourselves victims of our own exaggerated rhetoric and imagined enemies. The China-bashing associated with the campaign finance scandal and the national security hysteria generated by the Wen Ho Lee case are two of the latest examples of how exaggeration drives us into behaving like a chicken with its head cut off!

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