When arms races erupt there is usually a trigger -- like North Korea's test-firing of the Dae Po Dong-I missile one year ago. Today, fears that Pyongyang would resume testing at the end of August have ebbed, but the reason may be that the missile crisis has already achieved its purpose for all parties involved. Commentator Terry Lee monitors the Korean language media for PNS's New California Media project, a collaboration of ethnic news media that hosts the first inter-ethnic portal on the Internet at www.ncmonline.com.

The North Korean missile crisis, punctuated by Pyongyang's on-and-off again threats to resume testing, resembles a play entitled "Opening a New Arms Race in Asia." The characters include a villain -- North Korea; victims -- South Korea and Japan; and a wizard, the United States. As the plot unfolds, however, the audience discovers that the characters are not exactly playing their assigned roles.

Consider the latest twists:

*In mid-August, South Korea and Japan held the first joint naval exercise in the South Western Sea of Korea, billed as a practice rescue operation.

*On August 16, South Korea announced plans to buy eight US made spy planes for $461 million to enhance its ability to gather military data on North Korea. A week later, South Korea announced it would purchase three new submarines by the year 2005 to augment its current fleet of eight.

*On August 24, China and South Korea signed a Military Cooperation Treaty for the first time since the Korean War. The Seoul-based Central Daily explained China's move as based on fears of a new Cold War era.

* US and South Korean intelligence have found proof that North Korea purchased Mig-29s from Russia and is using Mig-29 parts to assemble 10 Mig fighter jets, according to reports in the Korean Central Daily.

* Japan continued its arms expansion as South Korean media speculated that Tokyo was looking to buy two aircraft carriers, speculation which Tokyo denies.

The arms race began when North Korea launched its first ballistic missile, the Dae-Po Dong-I, over Japan's air space exactly one year ago. But what fueled it was a consensus among virtually all parties involved that their best interests were served by expanding rather than reducing their national arsenals.

North Korea, with a population of 20 million in an area smaller than Indiana, is the poorest nation in the world. Its mission right now is to shore up and sustain the ideology known as Jucheism which has held the country together for over 50 years and is premised on recognition that North Korea is one of the main military powers in the world. Founded by former president Kim Il-Sung, Jucheism's credibility is now challenged by the worst famine in the country's history, and the sinking of a North Korean vessel in a shoot-out with South Korean naval forces on June 15. Right now ballistic missiles are all the regime has going to shore up popular faith and to ensure that it remains a force to contend with on the international stage.

Last year's missile firing gave Japan's parliament--led by conservative Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi-- just the rationale it needed to begin reconstructing its own military and redefining the terms of the Military Security Treaty, which has confined it to peacekeeping since the end of World War II. As Japanese media trumpeted the "new dangers facing Japan," and politicians warned of an imminent new missile deployment, Japan's 1999 Defense Outlines projected a five-fold increase over 1998. In May, Japan rewrote its constitution with "New Guidelines" permitting the military to be involved in conflicts in Asia in the name of aiding the United States.

South Korea, ironically, did not take North Korea's missile launch as seriously as Japan did. The bigger threat it sees is that foreign investors -- wary of instability on the Korean Peninsula -- will pull out of South Korea and jeopardize its economic recovery from the financial crisis of 1997. President Dae-Jung Kim also faces a strong opposition party which has attacked his "Sunlight Policy" toward North Korea for being "soft" on socialism. Kim came under renewed criticism after North Korean vessels crossed South Korean Sea boundaries on June 15 and collided with the South Korean Navy. By early August, Kim had met with President Clinton to discuss North Korea's newest threat of a missile launch and announced that South Korea had won positive response from U.S. to develop longer-range (500 km) missiles.

Washington, for its part, persists in its "wizard" role as keeper of the power balance between the region's four main rivals -- China, North Korea, South Korea and Japan. The North Korean missile crisis helps legitimize its role as "mediator" as well as its military presence in the region. When North Korea on August 8 threatened to renew its missile tests, Washington countered with threats of cutting off food aid and of bombing the North. Then it announced that North Korea was simply using the threat as a negotiating tactic. Its latest act of wizardry, according to the Seoul-based Chosun Daily, came in the form of an offer from William Perry to lift economic sanctions as a quid pro quo for North Korea halting its missile deployments -- an offer North Korea appears inclined to accept.

If tensions are now subsiding, it may well be because the North Korean missile crisis has already served its purpose. The Asian Pacific is now a vastly more dangerous region than it was a year ago.