Ever since Taiwan President Lee Tung-hui's explosive "two-state" assertion disclaiming eventual reunification with China, Chinese language newspapers have spotlighted mounting concerns among Overseas Chinese and in Taiwan itself over that island's future. Ironically, while the West has championed the independence cause in East Timor, the Clinton Administration clearly objects to Taiwan's unilateral proclamation of secession from China. Largely off the radar screen of U.S. media, people in Taiwan are growing nervous. Prosperity prevails, yet the politics of next year's presidential elections are getting more turbulent. There still is confidence that the island will muddle through, but there is also fear that something could happen.

New California Media associate editors Franz Schurmann and Song Xiang excerpted and translated three articles from the Chinese language media to provide a unique NCM perspective on "Taiwan -- The Other Asian Secession Crisis."

INTRODUCTION:

"Overseas Chinese shouldn't get too worried," advised Chen Shih-yao in The World Journal Weekly (headquartered in Taipei, with Bay Area edition published in Milbrae). But the widening gap between Taiwan public opinion which favors a two-states policy, and China's insistence, backed by the U.S. and Overseas Chinese, on a one-state policy is creating a "taut bow.... When will the arrow fly?" According to the Sing Tao Daily (headquartered in Hong Kong, with Bay Area edition published in South San Francisco), China's no. 2 official overseeing Cross-Straits relations recently visited the Bay Area, blasting Lee Tung-hui's assertion of a two-states policy and affirming that President Clinton had personally reiterated U.S. support for the one-China policy in a phone call to Chinese President Jiang Zemin. The China Press (headquartered in Beijing, with a local edition published in San Francisco) took an optimistic view, observing that economic concerns are still on Beijing's front burner and that the visit of the official by itself signaled movement -- albeit at a snail's pace -- in Cross-Straits relations.

TAIWAN PEOPLE FACE LURKING DANGERS

BY CHEN SHIH-YAO, WORLD JOURNAL WEEKLY (Commentary, Sept. 12-18)

Most Overseas Chinese -- other than immigrants from Mainland China -- are worried about Taiwan, its internal politics, foreign policies and security. Even more so now because of tense Cross-Straits relations, the trouble caused by President Lee Tung-hui's "two Chinese states" declaration, the upcoming presidential election (March 2000), the controversial constitutional term-extension amendment, the political instability.

Taiwan has a lot of survival strategies. Overseas Chinese shouldn't get too worried! But a lot of things have gone badly.

Ever since Taiwan was ejected from the U.N., relations with the United States have gone downhill. There were military tensions in 1996. These too passed. A lot of Overseas Chinese don't support the two-China-states policy. Yet opinion polls show 50 to 70 percent of people in Taiwan support them.

Taiwan is a democracy, and in democracies, people reap what they sow. But certain issues, especially Taiwan independence and the two-states declaration, are pushing the Chinese Communists to the breaking point. Yes, Taiwan must survive. So Taiwan is in a flurry of doing this and that. Yet if the stratagems succeed, the Communists will strike. When will the arrow fly from the taut bow?

A lot of Taiwan people are still hoping that maybe these stratagems can work. Alas, they don't take into account the lurking dangers they face.

CHINA OFFICIAL BLASTS TAIWAN PRESIDENT IN VISIT TO BAY AREA

SING TAO DAILY (News Item , Sept. 12)

In meeting after meeting with Bay Area Chinese groups, Tang Shu-pei, the No. 2 person at Mainland China's Association of Cross-Straits Relations (the semi-official go-between for the government), blasted President Lee Tung-hui of Taiwan for asserting that relations between the mainland and Taiwan should be dealt with on a state-to-state level.

Invited by pro-China groups to attend the Bay Area celebration of the 50th anniversary of the People's Republic of China, Tang has also been asked by pro-Taiwan groups to give talks on Beijing's reaction against President Lee's latest and explosive assertion.

Tang said that the United States has denied President Lee the support he sought for his "two-state" theory. President Clinton phoned President Jiang Zemin on July 15 and said the United States would stick with the one-china policy. It was the first time an American President phoned his Chinese counterpart over the Taiwan issue, said Tang.

But Tang also criticized the United States, saying that continued U.S. arms sales to Taiwan had encouraged President Lee to make his latest assertion.

NEW MOVEMENT IN CROSS-STRAITS RELATIONS?

THE CHINA PRESS (Editor's Comments, Sept. 15)

On Monday, Sept. 13, a top member of an informal People's Republic of China-Taiwan relations committee gave a press conference in San Francisco. He said nothing new during his prepared comments and a Q&A... However, his presence and the press conference... means that something may be moving again in Cross-Straits relations, which were frozen by Beijing last spring...

When Chinese President Jiang Zemin was in Australia just before the New Zealand APEC summit meeting (with Clinton), he said Cross-Straits relations could be resumed if Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui accepted two conditions: revoke his two-Chinese-states declaration and come to China, not as Republic of China president but as head of the (Taiwan governing) Kuomintang party.

At his press conference in San Francisco, Tang Shu-bei said that if these two conditions were met, then Wang Daohan, the director of the Association, would go to Taiwan. So the ball is now in Taipei's court. He also noted that Wang was once the mayor of Shanghai, the financial capital of China. His remarks were a subtle way of saying that economic matters are still on the front burner of Beijing's concerns.

Given past precendents, Tang Shu-bei would not have come to San Francisco unless Taipei had given some signal -- through closed circuits -- that it was at least willing to consider Jiang Zemin's move. "If Taiwan abandons the two-state theory, then Cross-Straits relations can immediately resume."