On Jan. 14, Russia's new president issued the equivalent of a state-of-the-nation address which proclaims, in effect, a new cold war with America. The fallout from worsening U.S.-Russian relations can be seen in both sudden jumps in oil prices and the snag in Israel-Arab peace accords. PNS editor Franz Schurmann, professor emeritus of history and sociology at UC-Berkeley, has traveled extensively and reads widely in the Asian, Russian and Arab media. His weekly column "Predictions" can be found on PNS' website New California Media online at ncmonline.com.

A sudden jump in oil prices signals worries on the part of Anglo-American oil companies, OPEC and the governments behind them over an alarming new instability in the oil-rich Middle East. The root cause lies in the threat of a new Cold War between Russia and the United States.

Oil prices have always been a key sign of things getting out of control in the Middle East. Last year oil prices fell so low that the oil producing countries warned about new instabilities. As a result, the Anglo-American oil companies and OPEC, with the silent backing of the American and British governments, agreed to push oil prices up. They did go up and many Arab and Muslim countries were happy about the increased revenues. But when consumers in the West complained, the high prices were brought down somewhat. By the end of 1999, a happy balance seemed to have been reached.

Yet now, suddenly, oil prices are again shooting up. This is something more than greed. Along with a comparable rise in gold prices, it's a sign that the great power coalition that came into being during the Gulf War has come apart.

During most of last year Israeli-Arab peace accords were in the cards. If the Shepherdstown peace talks had resumed on January 19, as scheduled by the White House, most observers predicted that accords would have been signed in February. Of the three negotiating states -- Israel, Syria and the U.S. -- it was most likely Clinton who called off the talks. The reason was the publication on January 14 of a new Russian national security document which proclaims, in effect, a new cold war with America. Equivalent to a state-of-the-nation address, it was issued by the new Russian president Vladimir Putin only two weeks after Yeltin's surprise resignation on New Year's Eve.

Despite calls for continued good relations with America, the document's central theme is that America is seeking to dominate the world. This poses a direct threat to Russia's security. Putin called for a new Russian military-industrial complex to once again make Russia into a great power on the world scene. Within days he ordered the massive bombing of Grozny where tens of thousands of civilians still live. And China and France teamed up with Russia at the UN to reject the Anglo-American choice for arms inspector in Iraq, finally splitting up the Gulf War coalition.

Israel and Syria or Israel and Palestine or Israel and Lebanon could only make credible accords with each other if this great power coalition led by America were intact. But in the space of a few weeks, Russia, China and France have all left the big picture gaming table. And there is no way Uncle Sam -- even with its faithful ally Britain -- can manage a Middle East which continues to be a seething cauldron. Not only is Islamic fundamentalism intensifying; in a key election year in the U.S. many rising wannabes want to deny President Clinton any success as Middle Eastern peacemaker.

The Russians left the table because they are convinced Uncle Sam is out to grab the oil of the former Soviet empire while doing nothing to help it resolve its crisis in Chechnya. The French have been angry at the U.S. for some time in part because of the haughty way the American-led NATO treated them during the Kosovo War. Like the Russians, the French see themselves as a great nation. China's relations with the U.S. now have greatly improved. But the Chinese are pulling away from anything west Asian or European. When finally the essentially European G-7 tendered an invitation to China to join, the Chinese responded, "Thank you for the invitation, but no!" Even Iran may soon bow to the conservative mullahs who want to wreck whatever is left of the U.S.-Iran rapprochement.

It's now clear that Yelstin's surprise resignation and the rise to power of Putin have launched a different era for Russia. Yelstin, despite his many failures, still stuck to his links with the U.S. Not Putin. The reappearance on the world scene of a Russia that once again regards itself as more enemy than friend of America is a bad sign for those who look forward to peace and prosperity in the world -- especially in the conflict-ridden Middle East.