China's unexpected ultimatum on Taiwan was a reaction against the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act passed by the House. But with leading Taiwan presidential contenders backtracking on independence talk, and U.S.-China relations closer than they have been in years, the chances of war are minimal. PNS editor Franz Schurmann, professor emeritus of history and sociology at the University of California, Berkeley, is author of numerous books on China and monitors the Chinese-language news media for New California Media (ncmonline.com).

When China issued its either-or Taiwan ultimatum Washington got the war jitters. The Wall St. Journal headlined "China threatens war against Taiwan if island resists unification talks."

But a high-ranking Beijing official said China's White Paper constituted no change in PRC policy. The only thing that has changed, the Hong Kong-based Sing Tao Daily quoted him as saying, "is that we want a decision now from Taiwan -- unification yes or no? If the decision is yes, then we want a time table. If no, we're going to attack."

What has not changed is the reality that the "Taiwan issue" is a triangle formed by Mainland China, Taiwan and America. When the House recently voted the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act it collectively reaffirmed the triangle.

On the other hand on November 7 a new American president will be elected and Bill Clinton will leave office on January 20, 2001. No president since Nixon has done more to bring about close ties between the U.S. and China than Clinton.

It's been years since Sino-American relations have been so good as now. From February 8 through 12, 7000 American sailors were enjoying Hong Kong shore leave. A few days later an American delegation headed by Undersecretary of State Strobe Talbot was in Beijing.

High ranking officials from the Defense Department accompanied Talbot along with resident American ambassador retired Admiral Joseph Prueher who, until mid-1999, was commander in chief of all American armed forces in the Asia Pacific theater.

The U.S.-China strategic partnership appears to be working in East Asia. And that is the main reason all three Taiwan candidates have backed away from any blatant anti-unification stance, including Chen Shui-pien from the pro-independence party.

This change in the East Asian balance of forces helps explain why House members passed the Enhancement Act with such a large "yes" majority.

So why did the House vote the Act? Given the China-bashing inclinations of so many in Congress, they clearly figured they could get away with voting overwhelmingly for a bill that would die in the Senate. "The act stands little chance of passage in the Senate," the Wall Street Journal observed.

Indeed, whether Congress likes it or not, the three global great powers today are America, Russia and China. And as Russian expert Strobe Talbot knows, America's entire policy towards Russia has fallen apart.

Last summer the New York Times magazine published a cover story entitled "Who Lost Russia?" It is a loss the U.S. can ill afford, given its growing dependence on oil.

In early 1992 a new Russia, eager to work with the West, sought aid in return for access to the vast oil and natural gas reserves of the Commonwealth of Independent States. On December 31, 1999, Boris Yelstin handed the crown of Russia to Vladimir Putin. Putin's ambitions and the circumstances of proud Russia's steep fall make it clear that the dream of a Western alliance with the CIS will never be fulfilled.

Meanwhile, the world's industrial center is now in East and Southeast Asia, even as the region is also a global financial center along with America and Europe. Together with India, it is also a center of high-tech industry and innovation.

China is rapidly becoming the central power within this dynamic region. And that is why a new mind set about Taiwan is arising in Washington. The waters of world affairs are too turbulent for America to divert limited energy and will to rescuing the Taiwan canoe.