Rising gas prices, unrest in the Middle East, threats of a recession or worse -- all very lively topics in recent weeks -- echo the events of October, 1973, the "oil crisis." The resemblance is no accident, writes PNS editor Franz Schurmann, as many of the same forces are in play, but this time overshadowed by an even more ominous crisis. Schurmann is the author of "The Foreign Politics of Richard Nixon" (Institute of International Studies, UC Berkeley) in which he extensively analyzes earlier oil crises.

Hints from Washington that gasoline prices could go over $2 a gallon. Markets see an inflationary spike coming fast -- interest rates will rise, the economy will fall and soon we're in a full-blown recession or worse.

That's the scenario that unfolded on October 20, 1973, when the Saudis cut production forcing a 400 percent increase in global oil prices. By early 1974 most of the world was hit by the worst slump since the Great Depression of 1932-1940.

The Saudis were using their ability to manipulate global oil prices, their "oil weapon," because they were angered by the immense weapons airlift to Israel announced by President Nixon on October 13.

By the end of that October, the world saw the most dramatic shift in international alliances since Tito broke with Stalin in 1948. Egyptian president Anwar Sadat, a firm ally of the Soviet Union, suddenly switched sides and linked up with the U.S.

Thus while Western publics saw huge lines forming at gas stations as a sign the sky was falling, those in a position to know saw instead a big reorientation in America's Mideast policy. Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger sought nothing less than swinging all of the Mideast over to the American side.

They succeeded -- and it was their own oil weapon which brought that historic shift about.

Signals now coming out of Saudi Arabia's Arabic-language press indicate they believe history may well repeat itself. Once again the Saudis precipitated the crisis by cutting production. They did not have to do that -- prices were already rising from last year's low, when they fell below $10 a barrel, to around $25 a barrel this year.

As in mid-October 1973, the Saudis are using the only weapon they have in the marathon Israel-Arab competition: oil. Last month Israeli planes were bombarding Lebanon, and talks between Israel and Syria and Israel and the Palestinians broke down.

The Saudis knew full well that they could seriously damage Western economies as in October 1973. They were right. The Europeans are heavily dependent on Mideastern oil -- Germany's president came to Israel and gave a heart-felt speech on the Holocaust and the French prime minister called the Lebanese Hizbollah fighters "terrorists." But their real message was firm advice to the Israelis -- stop squabbling and resume the peace process.

Israel has been able to delay the peace process when it sees unacceptable outcomes. But this time the pressure is too great -- Israel cannot let itself be held responsible for allowing the global bull market crash.

With a presidential election looming, the Clinton White House is unlikely to stand idly by as markets crash. The government's powerful recession-preventing machinery will clearly be put in motion.

On the other hand, the next American president will have to face an even greater crisis -- one that cannot be handled by diplomatic and price-manipulating tricks.

This is the great crisis of high-living versus limited resources.

Global oil demand is now 78 million barrels a day, and continuing strong economic growth could bring demand to 80 million much sooner than expected.

Fresh water supplies are going down more rapidly than anticipated, and global water shortages threaten to reduce the global food supply.

Bull markets are only sustainable if the inflation rate is kept flat. But nature -- not the Saudis -- is now dictating a growing imbalance between demand and supply.

Those who study global resources know this, and also know that greed and power hunger can lead to terrible violence. A recent report indicated that many of the conflicts in Africa are due to Western corporations trying to corner Africa's rich diamond resources.

It doesn't take much specialized knowledge to know that a lot of the anger and rivalry in the Mideast has a big oil and water component. In 1973 the smaller Arab-Israeli crisis was mastered but the larger crisis of limited resources was not.

To deal with the bigger crisis, the smaller ones have to be resolved. It's going to take a lot of international working-together, but there could be real hope for dealing with the bigger one.