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Political Earthquake -- After The Dust Settles, Taiwan's Politics Will Never Be The Same
By Rick Mercier
Date: 03-21-00
Taiwan's voters turned the Nationalist Party out of power after 50 years in recent elections. One reason was a split in the party itself, a split that reflects deep and long-standing divisions in the nation -- divisions that may now have a chance of being resolved. PNS correspondent Rick Mercier is a freelance journalist based in Taipei.
TAIPEI -- Aftershocks from the political earthquake that rocked Taiwan last Saturday are continuing to shake this island nation.
Chen Shui-bian's victory struck at the foundations of party politics in a country ruled by the same party for more than half a century.
The ousted Nationalist Party or Kuomintang (KMT), has held power Taiwan since the end of World War II. In 1949, when the Chinese communists seized power on the mainland, the remnants of the KMT, led by Chiang Kai-shek, fled to Taiwan, where they ruled under martial law until 1987.
Since then, guided by Lee Teng-hui, the president and chair of the KMT, Taiwan has started down the road to democracy, holding its first direct presidential election in 1996.
That road has led to democracy -- and to the turmoil that now engulfs the mighty KMT.
Angry protesters have skirmished with riot police outside the party's headquarters since Sunday, demanding that Lee step down as KMT chairman, which he agreed to do in September.
The demonstrators are united in their belief that Lee engineered the KMT defeat because he secretly supported Chen Shui-bian -- a rumor that was widely circulated before the election.
Most of the demonstrators supported James Soong, the former KMT heavyweight who was ousted from the party late last year. Soong ran as an independent in the election, finishing a close second to Chen.
Sunday, Soong, who has fashioned himself as a populist taking on entrenched parties that are out of touch with common people, announced that he would create a new party.
This was not his preference, he said at a press conference, "However, I was forced to do so because of requests by our supporters."
He claims he has no desire to intervene in KMT operations, "But I still hope the KMT can sincerely review its mistakes."
Soong clearly remains a force within the increasingly schizophrenic KMT, representing the old-guard, Chinese-nationalist side of the party's personality as opposed to the reformist side, represented by President Lee, which promotes a Taiwanese identity -- not unlike Chen and the DPP.
Some observers believe that the KMT's candidate, Vice President Lien Chan, was moving toward the old guard near the end of his campaign. Political analyst Joseph Wu of National Chengchi University said a faction in the KMT had "a hidden agenda [to] minimize the role of Lee Teng-hui." Some insiders in the party believed Lien was "moving away from Taiwan consciousness," Wu said.
Indeed, Lien's election-eve rally, replete with the singing of Chinese nationalist songs of the Chiang Kai-shek era, seemed to be a last-ditch attempt to woo some of the KMT old guard away from Soong.
The rift in the KMT reflects the ethnic divide that has existed in Taiwan ever since the mainlanders flooded the island in 1949 and imposed their rule with an iron fist.
For decades, Taiwanese have resented what they see as a concentration of power and wealth in the hands of mainlanders. This resentment helped give rise to the DPP.
Chen, although a product of the Taiwan-first movement spearheaded by the DPP, is also seen as a pragmatist, and this may help him forge the cross-party coalition he will need to govern.
The challenge facing Chen in the national legislature will be enormous. The KMT holds a majority of seats, and with a lower-house election possible shortly before Chen's inauguration in May, he could find himself also up against a block of legislators from Soong's new party.
Even before his election on Saturday, Chen was attempting to lay the groundwork for a cross-party alliance by saying he would refrain from participating in party activities if elected.
The responsibility of working with the legislature will fall upon the shoulders of Chen's premier. Chen said in a January interview that he expected his premier to be "someone accepted by the general public and the international community, a person who can move among the different parties and party factions in the Legislative Yuan effectively."
That person, if Chen gets his wish, will be Nobel laureate Lee Yuan-tseh, whose endorsement of Chen in the final week of the campaign was seen as a major reason for Chen's victory. The highly respected scholar is the only person who "can successfully gain cross-party support," a top Chen aide said.
Chen will have to show some immediate progress on improving relations with China, which views the president-elect as a radical Taiwan independence figure.
During the campaign, Chen distanced himself from his party's traditional pro-independence stance, saying he would only declare independence if China attacked.
China considers Taiwan a "renegade province," not a sovereign state, and wants to reunite it with the mainland under the "one country, two systems" model applied to Hong Kong and Macau.
Most people in Taiwan cannot accept this model, Chen said after he was elected, "but the determination to seek peace will not be discarded." Chen has repeated his wish to hold talks in Beijing before his inauguration.
Chen has repeated his wish to hold talks in Beijing before his inauguration on May 20.
Chinese President Jiang Zemin, was quoted by the state-run Xinhua news service as saying that he would welcome dialogue with Taipei, so long as it recognized Beijing's "one China" principle as a prerequisite for talks.
Chen said he would discuss the one China notion, but would not accept it as a precondition for dialogue.
In a sign that the pragmatists within the party have the upper hand, the DPP has announced that it would consider deleting pro-independence language in the party's charter.
In the end, the historically pro-independence DPP might prove to be better suited than the KMT to sit down and hammer out a deal with Beijing.

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