The very real fight between reformists and conservatives in Iran has intensified since the reformists' surprise sweep in the most recent election. In ways, the situation resembles that in 1980, including many of the same players, but a new civil war, no matter what the outcome, would gravely weaken stability in the region. PNS editor Franz Schurmann, professor emeritus of history and sociology at UC-Berkeley, has traveled widely in the Middle East and reads the Arab- and Farsi-language press.

Iran could be -- but should not be -- on the brink of civil war.

Even as the new Reformist-dominated parliament prepares to convene, the Conservatives have put their militias -- 5 million young men under arms -- on a state of alert. Iran has 60 million people, half of them under 20.

In the recent elections the Reformists won with large majorities among women and youth. In North Teheran, where the universities and colleges are concentrated, students came out in numbers to protest the militia's closing down of 16 newspapers, 11 of which support President Khatemi's reform program. Iran's militias have the legal right to do this if they believe the system is threatened.

Few in Iran want another bloody war. Yet the social forces confronting each other now in Teheran are the same as they were in 1980. On one side are the children of the working class who live in the sprawling capital's shabby southern districts. In 1980 their parents supported the Ayatollah Khomeini. Now they support the Basij, meaning "Mobilization," as the militias are called in Farsi.

On the other side are students mostly of middle class origins. In 1978, they were Marxist and fought the Shah for a secular and socialist Iran. In 1980 they were crushed by the Khomeini forces. Many died but many made it to Iraq where they were welcomed by Saddam Hussein. They called themselves Mujahideen-i Khalq, meaning both in Farsi and Arabic, "the People's Fighters."

On September 1, 1980 Saddam invaded Iran. Mujahideen leader Rajavi told Saddam Iran was on the brink of falling apart from civil war and Saddam believed him. Instead the war lasted till 1988. Many thousands died on both sides, including Basij children who charged into minefields to make way for the Iran's adult infantry.

Once again the Mujahideen are predicting civil war and again Saddam may agree. The Pentagon was sufficiently alarmed to send Tehran satellite photographs of Iraqi troop movements. But this time, what most Iranians want above all else is peace.

Last July students mounted huge demonstrations to protest the shutting down of a pro-Reformist newspaper. Three students (five according to some sources) were killed. That so shocked both sides that the subsequent electoral process remained peaceful.

When, to general surprise, the Reformists rolled up a big victory, some feared the Conservatives might annul the election, but Khamene'i ruled that out.

The fears and hatreds of the two sides run deep. Former president Rafsanjani who fared poorly in the election, seems to have floated a compromise hinting that Khatemi should quit. On the other hand Khatemi has said repeatedly the reforms must continue.

Saddam Hussein and the Mujahideen-i Khalq would welcome a civil war in Iran. If Iran's Reformers and Conservatives should go to war with each other Saddam and Rajavi likely would ally themselves with the reformers which would in turn mean a bi-national war of the secular against the religious.

The loser in such a war will disintegrate politically. An Iranian victory would mean the Mujahideen take power in Teheran and Saddam would get the oil-rich Arabic-speaking province of Khuzistan in Iran's southwest. An Iraqi win would see Iraqi Kurdistan declaring independence and the Shi'ite Arabs in the south will link up with Shi'ite Iran.

Either scenario will be catastrophic for regional and world peace. Washington knows it -- otherwise the Pentagon would never have sent those photographs to the Iranians. Certainly Iranian leaders know it from bloody experience in the recent past. And most Iranians know that if Northern and Southern Teheran once again go to war with each other all Iranians will be the losers.

The Conservatives were the losers in the elections and now they are fighting back. If Khatemi resigns then the Reformists will become the losers. Iran will be hurled back to the early 1980's when both international and civil war tore it apart.

The only solution is for the secular and the religious to accept that they must find or build a common road on which both can move. The chances are good they can do exactly that provided the international community encourages rather than threatens them.