The United States has become the world's leading nuclear power and is very much in the forefront of the movement toward globalization, but no one thinks this situation can remain static for long. In the coming decade, four likely challengers appear, all Asian or Eurasian, all with memories of empire. PNS editor Franz Schurmann, professor emeritus of history and sociology at UC-Berkeley, has traveled extensively and reads widely in the Asian, Russian and Arab media. His weekly column "Predictions" can be found on PNS' website New California Media online at www.NCMonline.com.

The world knows America is the Solo Superpower, the world's top nuclear power. It also knows that globalization -- that is, American civilization -- predominates everywhere.

But Pat Buchanan -- the Reform Party's presumed presidential candidate -- wants America to go from emerging empire back to being a republic. Buchanan is an outspoken isolationist. True, he speaks of Russia as a "natural ally," derides the idea of a "China threat" and sees no vital U.S. interest in the Middle East. But, like earlier isolationists, he is worried the world will devour America.

He has reasons. Many people see America as a new Roman Empire but few, if any, believe it can rule the world as Solo Superpower and through globalization.

Moreover, not far into this decade, it will become evident that four other empires have been arising to challenge America. Three are Asian: China in the east, India in the south and Iran in the west. One is Eurasian: Russia.

Three criteria for empire in this new century are large landmass, an educated elite and a nuclear weapons delivery capability. Russia has met all three since the late 1950s, China since the late 1970s, India in the late 90's. Iran, while it lacks landmass, could fulfill the other two criteria in this decade.

All four also have a key ingredient for empire: collective memory of having been an empire or a civilization. Historians know that a country which has been an empire finds that difficult to forget.

Iran was an empire from 519 BCE until 1978 when The Shah -- called "King-of-Kings," the Biblical word for emperor -- fell. India was an empire from 264 BCE till 1857, then part of the British Empire till 1947. China was an empire from 221 BCE to 1911, Russia from 1472 till 1917.

During the Cold War, from 1947 to 1991, American strategic planners focused on the Soviet threat. But now Pentagon planners see imperial threats coming from Asia. A Joint Chiefs of Staff report says the Asian continent and its oceans are the most likely sites of conflict for the next two decades. It recommends greater deployment of American military forces to the region as well as more joint maneuvers with allies.

The report says that China could become America's chief challenger by 2020. At the same time, our relations with Russia have taken a sharp downturn as the new President Putin expands its massive military-industrial complex.

President Clinton's recent visit to India was a symbolic recognition of its rise to great power status, a year after it shot missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Iran is the poorest and smallest of the four rising empires. It is also the only one still shaken by revolutionary waves. A civil war could break out between Islamic fundamentalists and reformers -- violent clashes between these tendencies continue in many parts of the world from Nigeria through Chechnya to the Philippines.

Iraq plays a key role in determining whether or not Iran becomes a new empire. Iraq is Arabic and Iran Persian, but the two were united 2,500 years ago when Cyrus founded the Persian Empire and that unity has survived with only a few breaks ever since.

For the last 5 centuries, a common Shi'ite faith has formed a bond. Iraq's leader, Saddam Hussein, an Arab nationalist and not Shi'ite, dreams of a restored Babylonian empire without Persians. But Iran's Islamic revolutionaries, moderate or conservative, want to see the two peoples re-united.

There is a good chance war between Iraq and Iran will again break out. If Iraq wins, the new Persian Empire will be stillborn. If Iran wins a new Shi'ite Empire will emerge which could have the most educated elite in the Muslim Middle East along with deliverable nuclear weapons.

The White House has adopted a policy of working with and not against these four new empires. It hopes the spread of American-style globalization will bring peace and prosperity. Globalization is spreading rapidly in China and at a somewhat slower pace through Russia and India. In Iran a majority of voters recently opted for globalization while an angry minority retaliated violently.

We will see well before the decade ends whether the isolationist Buchanan or the globalist Clinton predicted correctly.