Bombings of civilians are nothing new in Pakistan, a country faced with hostility on several fronts -- at its borders, in the United Nations, and at home. And while there are many theories about the source of the most recent blast and other previous bombings, the only certainty seems to be that it will happen again. PNS commentator Muddassir Rizvi is a Pakistani journalist specializing in development issues whose work appears in several weekly and monthly publications.

Often charged with sheltering Islamic groups involved in international terrorism, Pakistan itself has been the victim of a well-orchestrated terror campaign for 15 years.

The recent bomb blast here in the capital, leaving 16 people dead and more than 80 injured was another step down this bloody trail of misery and pain. Only the 1995 suicide attack on the Egyptian Embassy, with 19 dead, took a greater toll.

The blast sent a tremor of insecurity throughout the country, and evoked a sharp government response denouncing terrorism and announcing arrests.

But this is sure to be followed by a painful silence until the terrorists strike again. The blast also allows government opponents to score some political points by blaming the authorities for failing to provide security.

Terrorist acts in Pakistan started during the Afghan war, when the international community, particularly the United States, generously provided sophisticated weapons to Islamic groups to fight the Soviet forces.

"The Afghan war created strong Islamist groups armed with the most modern weaponry -- now they are either fighting against each other or some common enemy. Common, poor people come in the crossfire and die," commented a political analyst.

"We have been a victim of various forms of terrorism -- states fighting proxy wars on our soil, sectarian violence and incursions by the Indian intelligence agency RAW," commented Dr. Shireen Mazari, a defense and security expert who works with the government's Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad.

"That's not all," she continued, "The United States has also used our territory to carry out terrorist attacks on our neighbor, Afghanistan -- this is also terrorism," a reference to the missile attack on Osama Bin Laden's hideout in Afghanistan a couple of years ago.

According to the Pakistan Human Rights Commission, as many as 110 people were killed during 1998 in bomb blasts. "All these terrorist acts are carried out in poor localities, and only poor, voiceless people are killed," commented a government official. The victims of this most recent Islamabad bomb were also poor, daily wage laborers, most of them Afghan refugees living in a camp on the city's outskirts.

Various theories circulate as to the motives and perpetrators of the blast. Najum Mushtaq, a columnist, traces them to Afghanistan, going counter to the official line that implicates the Indian intelligence agency for most such acts.

According to one view, the Taliban and their opponents in the Northern parts of Afghanistan are fighting a proxy war in Pakistan. The Northern Alliance has always accused Pakistan of siding with the Taliban in the ongoing civil war in their country, and it is thought the Alliance -- currently being squeezed by fierce Taliban attacks on their strongholds -- may have instigated these terrorist acts.

Islamabad has distanced itself from the Taliban in the face of intense international pressure suggesting it supports groups involved in international terrorism.

Despite this, many observers believe that Pakistan's ties with the Taliban are still firm, if less cordial. Others, especially on the right, "believe a U.S.-led conspiracy is underway to undermine the Taliban," commented Najum Mushtaq.

Dr. Mazari denied international pressure was having any effect. "We have made it clear to the U.S. that they should directly talk to Taliban," she said.

The current military government, like its predecessors, is cautious in its dealings with the Taliban. It ruled out any linking of the recent blast with the Taliban even before investigators presented a report, and has since officially blamed the RAW.

Islamic groups are unhappy with the government's domestic policies opening up this conservative male-dominated society, particularly by the official decision reserving 33 percent of seats for women in local governing bodies.

Many political parties in Pakistan see India as the backer of terrorism in Pakistan, and many citizens believe the blast was the work of the Indian intelligence agency, a response to the growing strength of those opposed to Indian rule of the disputed territory of Kashmir.