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Restless And Rudderless In The Pacific Rim
By Philip Cunningham
Date: 11-27-00
As if struck by a water-borne virus, the nations touching on
the Pacific seem to be suffering a striking series of leadership problems.
From Indonesia to Peru, the United States to Japan, there have been crises
involving corruption and impeachment, and a cynical dissatisfaction marks
the political landscape. PNS correspondent Philip Cunningham reports from
Beijing.
A leadership vacuum of epic proportions has hit the Pacific Rim.
Something's out of whack.
The world's sole superpower has become virtually immobilized by an
electoral crisis that follows on the heels of a presidency weakened by
impeachment. Mean-spirited litigation is being employed to resolve the
impasse of the Gore-Bush election, but in a way it doesn't matter who
wins now, for there will be no mandate. An archaic electoral college
system and the unconvincing politicking of two deeply flawed, mediocre
men have produced two losers instead of one winner in the U.S.
presidential election.
President Clinton's willful self-weakening began with little lies and
contradictions. It's ironic that a man with such oratorical gifts should
end up becoming a poster boy for impeachment rather than an
inspirational leader of a free society.
Witness the Americanized Philippines, where Joseph Estrada has just
been impeached and faces trial in the Senate for wrongdoings that
make Clinton look like a saint. And Taiwan, where the fearless Chen
Shui-bian, the David who stood up to the twin Goliaths of the
Communist and KMT ruling parties, is now threatened with
impeachment for messing with the billion-dollar money politics of a big
nuclear reactor.
In countries with a parliamentary system, a vote of no-confidence
obviates the need for impeachment, but those democracies have not
been immune. It's hard to imagine a leader more weak and ineffective
than Japan's Prime Minister Mori, and he is being deserted left and
right. But it is unlikely his successor will have much of a mandate -- his
party is not only divided but could not form a government without help
from opposition parties -- so pro-reform and anti-reform factions would
tend to cancel one another out. More impasse and immobility.
Clinton has been a weak president but not without influence. His
twin-pronged approach to Asia -- an awkward combination of
missionary liberalism and crass money politics -- leaves a wobbly
legacy. The ambiguity of playing good cop/bad cop at the same time is
just plain confusing.
The endless vacillations of American foreign policy under
Clinton/Albright -- castigating Castro while embracing Kim Jong-il,
bad-mouthing China while promoting business junkets there, bombing
Serbia while arming the KLA -- all these things tend to cancel each
other out, cumulatively adding up to nothing. Or worse yet, a negative
legacy, less than nothing.
China President Jiang Zemin's mandate to lead was based on being a
loyal underling to Deng Xiaoping, a claim which he reasserted recently
as he unveiled a Deng memorial in Shenzhen. Despite regal posing
and throwing a conspicuously lavish party for himself on October 1,
1999, National Day, Jiang's mandate is still as shaky as an
earthquake. To his credit, he does not invoke the fear of his ruthless
predecessors. But his attempts to whip up a personality cult and
promote his ideology have failed not just because he lacks charisma
and original ideas, but popular support as well.
On the other side of the Pacific Ocean, Peru's Fujimori has become a
pathetic spectacle.
In Malaysia, Mahathir's ruthless prosecution of Anwar, once his
designated successor, has left the proud leader with only half the
Malay vote and a weakened mandate. In North Korea, the seemingly
all-powerful Kim Jong-il presides over a realm so wracked with poverty
and starvation that he has taken to wining and dining the likes of
Madeleine Albright to win some cash and concessions for a stalled
economy.
In Indonesia, the cynicism provoked by years of high-level corruption
and abuse under strongman Suharto has made the idea of a strong
leader almost unsavory. Indeed, the apparent weakness of the nearly
blind and enfeebled Wahid seems to be a desirable, integral
qualification for the job.
It's hard to imagine a prime minister more mild-mannered and
self-effacing than Thailand's ascetic Chuan Leekpai, but popular
resentment of his smug, self-assured leadership was a factor in calling
for new elections last month.
In 1969 youthful revolution swept the Western world, in 1989
anti-communist uprisings swept the Eastern world. In today's integrated
world, the currents and riptides of change have the potential to spread
rapidly. International investors pulled out of Southeast Asia like
lemmings going off a cliff in 1997, causing severe economic dislocation
and smoldering contempt for leaders linked to globalization.
The possibility of revolutionary contagion is ever present, but for the
moment, discontent with national leaders is not much more than a
yawn going around the room. The best thing that could be said for
living in a time of weak leaders is the possibility it will help create a
stronger, more responsible citizenship.

Pacific News Service,
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tel: (415) 438-4755.
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