The six U.S. recessions since the 1960s were accompanied by destabilizing world events. As the "unwobbling pivot" of the global economy, the United States is now facing a number of events that could make it wobble. Is a recession in the offing? PNS editor Franz Schurmann, professor emeritus of history and sociology at UC-Berkeley, has traveled extensively and reads widely in the Asian, Russian and Arab media.

A recent issue of the prestigious Financial Times of London carried a story headlined "U.S. Recession Worries Intensify."

Is this possible? With unemployment at its lowest level in 40 years, could America be hit with a recession early in 2001?

Economists and market observers over the years have often predicted recessions. Some were on the mark while others were not. They agree that recession occurs when there are two or more successive quarters of decreasing production. But they do not agree on why recessions occur.

Looking at one important measure of production, Gross Domestic Product -- the total value of goods and services produced -- economists would say America has experienced six recessions since the 1960s.

The Figures On The Left Are GDP And At The Bottom Years. The Graph Is Taken From: http://william-king.www.drexel.edu/top/prin/txt/probs/reces3.html

Historians can note that each recession came about when major destabilizing events were occurring on the world scene.

The first downward spike came in 1961. In April of that year President Kennedy, in office only three months, allowed CIA-financed Cuban exiles to mount an invasion at Cuba's Bay of Pigs. But, only hours afterwards, he quickly backtracked. He was afraid of a Cold War flare-up.

The second downward spike came in 1969-70. The destabilizing event was Nixon's decision to end the draft and drastically cut military spending, followed by the invasion of Cambodia in April 1970 -- the month China launched its first earth-orbiting satellite.

These two recessions were of short duration. The third one lasted longer -- the 1974-1975 spike came right after Saudi Arabia used its mighty "oil weapon" in mid-October 1973 to punish America for giving a $2-billion gift of weapons to Israel during the Yom Kippur War. Oil prices rose 400 percent. The resulting "stagflation" simultaneously led to high unemployment and high inflation rates.

The fourth downward spike, in late 1980, occurred late in the Carter Administration. As a result of Iran's Islamic revolution oil prices soared to over $20 a barrel. This recession was short because the Iran hostage crisis ended the day that Reagan became president, January 20, 1981.

The fifth downturn, in 1982, occurred when Israel invaded Lebanon. That led to the firing of Secretary of State Alexander Haig and his replacement by George Shultz. It again took a while for GDP to rise but, in 1984, when Reagan ran for re-election, U.S. growth was almost 10 percent.

The sixth downward spike came in 1991 with the Gulf War. War fears were calmed when the USSR supported the U.S.-led attack against Iraq. A sharp upturn occurred leading to the current boom that has been even longer than that of the '60s.

Now, as 2001 is only a month away, global markets are deeply worried. Layoffs are spreading. Light crude prices have again risen over $35 a barrel. A war between two peoples rages in the Holy Land. And America is caught in a snarl of presidential litigation.

That's bad enough, but the world power balance is more destabilized than since 1991. Russia is once again involved in the Israel-Palestine conflict. China, while working with America in the global economy, once again has fingered America as its major enemy. And for the seventh time since 1960, America could experience recession.

If the economists can't come together with an acceptable theory to explain recessions, maybe Ezra Pound's poetry can. Pound was a great admirer of Confucian philosophy. Its central principle is often translated as the "golden mean." But Pound's genius re-translated as the "unwobbling pivot." That means, as on a seesaw, movement requires a pivot that is stable. When the pivot is unstable, children on the seesaw can get badly hurt.

Like it or not, America has become the unwobbling pivot of the world system. In every one of the six recessions the pivot had become wobbly. When that happens the owners of capital get scared. They put their money into bonds, not stocks. Businesses fold and workers are laid off.