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Japan: Locomotive For The New Economy?
By Franz Schurmann
Date: 12-28-00
Till now, America has led the global communications
revolution and Japan seemed out of the picture. Suddenly, Japan is
roaring into the world market with wireless communication as its ace
card. Franz Schurmann, emeritus professor of University of California
at
Berkeley, reads the Chinese, Japanese and French press and writes on
their coverage for NCMonline.com.
"Global wireless communication" appears to be the wave of the future,
and
the world's corporate giants are racing for first place. Many observers
are betting on the Japanese.
Global wireless communication may involve very complex technology, but
it
simply means you can be at the North Pole with your laptop computer and
I
at the South Pole with my laptop, and we can communicate with each
other
as clearly as if we had telephone lines or cables strung between us.
The wireless revolution began with radio a century ago and television a
half century ago. Now it's the turn of the wireless multimedia.
The prestigious French newspaper, Le Monde, has a passion for
revolutions, whatever and wherever they may be. In a recent special on
the Japanese economy (December 12), it wrote, "Japan once again is
catching up with the West, this time through new technologies.
Americans
and Europeans should stop talking about how advanced they are."
Co-author of this article, Philippe Pons, who has long lived in Japan,
writes, "Japan's path towards an information society is going to come
up
with many surprises." Global Chinese entrepreneurs, though more
cautious,
express a growing interest in Japan's advances in communications.
The Japanese company in the forefront of this revolution is NTT DoCoMo,
the world's number one mobile telephone company. It launched the
"i-mode"
that allows wireless connection with Internet -- and gained a
phenomenal
16 million Japanese subscribers in a year and a half.
It appears confident that its technology works and is competitively
priced, so it is now moving quickly into the global market -- signing
an
accord with Hewlett-Packard to develop and sell broadband technology,
entering into strategic alliances with AOL, Hutchinson Whampoa in Hong
Kong and KNP in the Netherlands. On Dec. 8, it presented itself as the
first global communications company able to transmit quality video
images, music and information over the Internet.
DoCoMo's sudden foray into the world comes just as the giant of giant
chip makers, Intel, suffered severe losses -- more than $1 billion --
from what it thought would be the "next generation" RDRAM technology.
But as the Chinese language daily, The World Journal, reported, Taiwan
firms are stepping up their "nibbling" at Intel's dominance. Whereas
three years ago the great bulk of chips in PC's manufactured in East
Asia
(the world center for PC manufacturing) were from Intel, now over half
the chips are non-Intel.
The global wireless revolution must still overcome a lot of
technological
hurdles, such as transmission difficulties over uneven terrain. But it
seems that Japan Inc. has finally decided to put its staggeringly huge
financial resources behind this newest advance into the global markets.
Japan's "bubble economy" burst in 1992. The question arises: why didn't
the Japanese rev up their stagnating economy sooner, despite continual
urging from the two Clinton administrations? Instead, it kept on
selling
more bonds and spending more for civil entitlements. Japan's ratio of
public debt to GDP is now 114:100 -- the highest in the world.
Maybe Japan Inc. didn't move because it recalled looking at a similar
situation in the U.S. in 1994. Clinton came into office in 1993 when
the
US debt was at heights similar to Japan's today. The new Clinton
administration cut spending, and that helped bring down the debt. But
what really reduced the debt was an astonishing surge in Silicon Valley
production in 1994, spearheaded by Intel. America became the leader of
the global communications revolution.
Silicon Valley pulled along the entire American economy. It was like
one
railroad train locomotive pulling a hundred cars up a mountain side.
Both
the Nasdaq and the Dow market averages soared.
Now the miraculous freight train is in trouble.
If the Japanese are right that wireless will triumph over wires in the
communications revolution, then it could turn out that Japan will
succeed
America as the leader. And given the astonishing economic strength of
China, South Korea and Taiwan, it could be the giant East Asian
locomotive that pulls the American economy out of its own slump.

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