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California's Power Crisis: A Warning To Us All
By Michael T. Klare
Date: 02-02-01
All the fingers being pointed in blame over California's
power crisis -- at the state, the utilities, natural phenomena -- are
pointed in the wrong direction. The real problem can only be solved by
significant changes in the way we use power. PNS commentator Michael T.
Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire
College in Amherst, Mass., and author of "Resource Wars: The New
Landscape of Global Conflict, due in May from Metropolitan Books.
California's continuing power crisis has been widely blamed on a failed
deregulation process -- along with a regional water shortage (reducing
the flow to hydroelectric generators) and an unusually high number of
plants undergoing repairs.
These factors do indeed bear considerable responsibility for the
crisis.
But there is another, deeper cause at work -- an insatiable demand for
energy that no combination of technology and regulation can meet.
Spurred by a strong economy and the spectacular expansion of the
Internet, electricity consumption in the United States has been growing
at a heady pace -- up nearly one-fourth between 1990 and 2000,
according
to the Department of Energy (DoE). The added amount -- some 660 billion
kilowatt hours -- is equivalent to the combined current consumption of
Canada and Mexico. California, with its large cities, suburbs, and
computer industries, has accounted for a significant share of this
increase.
Nationwide demand for electricity will likely continue to grow in the
years ahead. Between now and 2020, the DoE predicts, U.S. consumption
will grow by another 1,000 billion kilowatt hours -- the total current
consumption of China. Of course, other industrialized and
industrializing
nations will also be expanding their electricity consumption over the
next two decades -- in some cases, at rates much greater than those in
the United States.
What is more, the growing demand for electricity is only one facet of
the
worldwide thirst for energy. All over the globe, people are buying new
cars and appliances, driving greater distances, and using computers for
an ever-wider range of functions. As a result, global consumption of
all
types of energy -- oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, and nuclear
power
-- will grow by 50 percent over the next twenty years. This will
require
an unprecedented increase in production of primary energy supplies. Oil
production, for example, will have to rise from 77 to 110 million
barrels
per day, while natural gas production will have to almost double.
Even with massive investments in new oil wells, gas fields, coal mines,
dams, nuclear reactors, refineries, pipelines, power plants, and
electrical grids, it is not clear that we can develop the necessary
infrastructure. As California demonstrates, a wide range of political,
economic, and environmental roadblocks stand in the way of rapid
infrastructure growth. A new regulatory environment could eliminate
some
of these roadblocks, but not all of them.
In short, attaining a 50-percent increase in worldwide energy
production
over the next 20 years is probably beyond human capacity.
President Bush seeks to overcome this dilemma by digging for oil in
national wilderness areas and by increasing domestic coal production.
No
doubt we will also hear more about the benefits of nuclear power
generation, despite the fact that no solution has yet been found to the
problem of storing highly radioactive wastes.
But all such measures will not satisfy the nation's ever-growing
demand.
In this sense, the blackouts and shortages now being experienced in
California provide a foretaste of the years to come.
Ultimately, reforming the regulatory system and building new power
plants
will not solve the energy crisis. Sooner or later we will be forced to
adopt a different strategy altogether. Only by slowing the growth in
demand can we hope to find a lasting solution to the problem.
President Bush should be speaking about energy conservation and the
development of super-efficient technologies, tax savings and other
economic incentives to households and companies that significantly
reduce
energy use -- and higher rates for those that fail to do so. Applied
judiciously, measures of this sort can lower demand to sustainable
levels.
For now, California's leaders must concentrate on meeting the state's
basic requirements. Once the immediate crisis has been overcome,
however,
the priority should be switched to demand reduction and the development
of energy-saving technologies. By suffering now, California can spare
us
all from an even greater crisis in the future if it elects to lead the
way in forging a new, sustainable energy strategy.

Pacific News Service,
660 Market Street, Room 210, San Francisco, CA 94104,
tel: (415) 438-4755.
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