Most observers view Vietnam's imprisonment of a prominent Buddhist monk and two Vietnamese American activists as emulating China's tactics -- give a little to get the diplomatic breakthrough you want, then crackdown. But Hanoi's hard-line Marxist faction has more than trade relations on its mind. PNS analyst Thi Lam, who served as a general in the former Republic of South Vietnam, is a writer based in San Jose, Ca.

SAN JOSE, CA. -- Preoccupied with China's arrest of Harry Wu, the world barely noticed when Hanoi sentenced a prominent Buddhist monk and two Vietnamese-American political activists for their human rights work. Only two weeks earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher's Hanoi speech encouraging Vietnamese students to push for democratic reforms.

Venerable Thich-Quang Do, 68, General Secretary of the United Buddhist Church (UBC), was sentenced to five years in prison for protesting the government's clamp-down of a Buddhist mission that aided Mekong River flood victims in 1994. His official crime was described as "undermining the policy of unity." The two Vietnamese Americans, both U.S. citizens, received terms ranging from 4 to 15 years for their involvement in Vietnam's pro-democracy movement.

Most human rights observers believe Hanoi is merely emulating China -- courting Washington's favor to obtain the goals it wants, then cracking down once those goals have been achieved. Thus, each year China releases a few political dissidents before the expiration of the most-favored nation status (MFN), then cracks down with renewed vigor once MFN has been renewed. Similarly, Hanoi courted renewal of diplomatic ties with Washington by submitting new information concerning American POW/MIA's. Now it is moving against political dissidents -- recent reports from Vietnam indicate it will soon put two more top ranking Buddhists on trial.

The problem with this argument is that renewing diplomatic ties is just the first step towards what Vietnam really wants -- gaining MFN status for itself. In talks with Christopher early in August, Vietnam's foreign minister stressed the country's eagerness to get MFN as well as access to international funds to jump start the economy. Jailing a prominent monk and two Vietnamese Americans won't exactly help promote beneficial trade relations.

The real motivation behind Vietnam's crackdown on dissidents has far less to do with international relations than with an internal struggle within the Vietnamese Community Party (VCP). With the imminent retirement of both Secretary General Do Muoi and Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet, Politburo members are jockeying for power before the 8th Party Congress convenes next June. With the conservative faction in ascendance, nobody wants to look "soft."

To these hard-core Marxists, the three main opposition groups -- the UBC, the Overseas Vietnamese Communities (OVC) and the party dissidents -- constitute a growing threat and must be eliminated, even at the cost of MFN and other trade-related benefits. Of the three, none is more formidable than UBC, in part because it receives financial support from Vietnamese Buddhist organizations overseas. Its potential status as a rival center of power was only heightened by the Church's role in relief activities in the Mekong Delta -- the prime reason why the Buddhist mission there was closed.

The political threat posed by the OVC is reinforced by its technological and financial clout. Party hard-liners are well aware that the per capita income of the two million overseas Vietnamese -- many of them professionals -- is two and a half times greater than that of the 72 million Vietnamese at home. The hard-liners fear the OVC will use the new diplomatic relations to increase their activities in Vietnam and foment support for democratic reforms.

Most of all, VCP fears that the coalition of Buddhists and Overseas Vietnamese with disaffected members of the Party would spell disaster for the regime. Just recently, two prominent communists were arrested for having openly demanded democracy and a multiparty system, and the government has threatened to arrest a high ranking party member and war hero for circulating an open letter demanding political reforms.

The establishment of diplomatic ties with Washington opens crucial economic opportunities for Vietnam that may stave off economic collapse. But it also speeds up the democratization process by unleashing powerful opposition forces. For now, the still powerful conservative wing of the VCP has decided to clamp down -- with the Buddhists as their most immediate target. Once again, as happened in South Vietnam in 1964, a Vietnamese regime could find itself toppled by the very monks it sought to intimidate.