By Franz Schurmann

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Prediction #58 for Tuesday, May 2, 2000

Iran at a Fateful Crossroads -- Hope for Iran's Salvation if Losers and Winners Move on Same Road Together

Iran shouldn't but could be on the brink of civil war.

Even as the new Reformist-dominated parliament prepares to convene the Conservatives have put their militias on a state of alert. The militias number 5 million young men under arms. Iran has 60 million people, half of them under 20.

In the recent elections the Reformists won because women and youth voted disproportionately for them. In North Teheran, where the universities and colleges are concentrated, students came out in numbers to protest the closing down of 16 newspapers by the militia, 11 of which support President Khatemi's reform program.

In Iran's Islamic political system the militias have the legal right to do so if they believe the system is threatened.

Few in Iran want another bloody revolution or war. Yet the same social forces confront each other now in Teheran as in 1980. On one side are the children of the working class who live in the sprawling capital's shabby southern districts. In 1980 their parents supported the Ayatollah Khomeini. Now they support the Basij, meaning "Mobilization," as the militias are called in Farsi.

On the other side are students mostly of middle class origins. In 1978 they were Marxist and fought against the Shah for a secular and socialist Iran. In 1980 they were crushed by the Khomeini forces. Many died but many also made it to Iraq where they were welcomed by Saddam Hussein. They called themselves Mujahideen-i Khalq, meaning both in Farsi and Arabic, "the People's Fighters."

On September 1, 1980 Saddam invaded Iran. Mujahideen leader Rajavi told Saddam Iran was on the brink of falling apart from civil war. Saddam believed him. Instead the war lasted till 1988. Many thousands died on both sides, especially Basij children who charged into minefields to make way for the Iran's adult infantry.

Once again the Mujahideen are predicting civil war and once again Saddam may agree. The Pentagon was so alarmed that they sent satellite photographs of Iraqi troop movements to Teheran. But this time, from the Conservative Supreme Guide Ali Khamene'i and the Reformist President Muhammad Khatemi on down, what most Iranis want above all else is peace.

Last July students mounted huge demonstrations to protest the shutting down of a pro-Reformist newspaper. Three students (five according to some sources) were killed. That so shocked both sides that the subsequent electoral process remained peaceful.

When, to general surprise, the Reformists rolled up such a big victory, some feared the Conservatives might annul the election. But Khamene'i ruled that out. Even now he insists the election results that gave Khatemi the presidency be respected.

The fears and hatreds of the two sides run deep. Former president Rafsanjani who fared poorly in the election and was given a special job by Khamene'i seems to have floated a compromise. He has hinted that Khatemi should quit. On the other hand Khatemi has repeatedly said that the reforms must go on.

Iran faces serious economic troubles. It is still isolated from the global economy. Having both an Islamic state and society has resulted in a soaring population. When he was president Rafsanjani pushed economic reforms and started improving relations with America mainly to improve the economic situation.

But under Khatemi reforms have also moved into the social minefield of gender relations. When French actress Catherine Deneuve was recently televised kissing a famous Iranian film director in Berlin a storm broke out in Conservative circles.

Saddam Hussein and the Mujahideen-i Khalq would welcome a civil war in Iran. If Iran's Reformers and Conservatives should go to war with each other Saddam and Rajavi likely would ally themselves with the former. That would mean a bi-national war of the secular against the religious.

Whichever side loses will disintegrate politically. If it is Iran then the Mujahideen will take power in Teheran and Saddam will get the oil-rich Arabic-speaking province of Khuzistan in Iran's southwest. If it is Iraq then Kurdistan will declare independence and the Iraqi Shi'ite Arabs in the south will link up with Shi'ite Iran.

Either scenario will be catastrophic for regional and world peace. Certainly Washington knows it otherwise the Pentagon would never have sent those photographs to the Iranians. Certainly both Iranian Reformist and Conservative leaders know it from bloody experience in the recent past. And most Iranians know that if Northern and Southern Teheran once again go to war with each other all Iranians will be the losers.

The Conservatives were the losers in the elections and now they are fighting back. If Khatemi resigns than the Reformists will become the losers. Iran will then be hurled back to the early 1980's when both international and civil war tore it apart.

The only solution is for the secular and the religious to accept that they must find or build a common road on which both can move. The chances are good they can do exactly that provided that the international community encourages rather than threatens them.