By Franz Schurmann

---

Prediction #59 for Tuesday, May 09, 2000

Greater China Will Win Out Over Identity Politics In The China-Taiwan Conflict

In a recent Mandarin Chinese language talk show several listeners said the 21st century is becoming the China century. One said the combination of the Mainland, Taiwan and Hong Kong already constitutes the "number one industrial region in the world."

But most of the time during this five days a week show listeners, almost all from Taiwan, argue about politics. The biggest issue is what the new president from the pro-independence Democratic People's Party (DPP), Chen Shui-pien, will say about Cross Straits reunification, Taiwan independence or neither. And the most heated arguments are about identity: are we Chinese or Taiwanese.

Chen nominated Chen Fu-mei (no relationship), a long time advocate of Taiwan independence who worked many years at Stanford's Hoover Institution, to be the new head of the Taiwan government Commission on Overseas Chinese Affairs. She proposed a new policy for the Commission: first priority for Taiwanese, then for those who studied in Taiwan and last for all other Chinese. The reactions on the talk-show were heated. One listener said Mrs. Chen doesn't ask you "how do you do," but "who do you hate today."

Many years ago Chen Fu-mei argued that no Taiwanese wanted to join the Mainland because they were so prosperous and the Mainlanders so poor. Now the entire China coast has not only become prosperous but is reaching Taiwan levels. Furthermore, as the above listener said, when China's vast Western Frontier Project gets into high gear China will become an even bigger economic giant.

Millions of Taiwan tourists have been to China and seen the astonishing economic progress. Recently Beijing announced that China now ranks number three, after the US and Canada, in super-highway mileage. By 2002 super-highways will connect China's east and west, north and south. It won't be long before it ranks first and the rest of the world concedes that, maybe, the 21st century is indeed the Chinese century.

When the defeated Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) fled to Taiwan in December 1949 the big issue for Chinese remained nationalism versus communism. As the world's anti-Communist leader America was a natural ally of Taiwan. But when Nixon made his breakthrough to "Red China" it became a country America had to "engage with constructively." But Taiwan remained a "close friend." What now worries many Taiwan people is whether Taiwan even remains a friend.

A commentator, writing under the pen name Tan Zhong for the Chinese-language Singapore Associated Express, noted how Clinton evolved from a China basher in the 1992 campaign to a pro-China advocate in recent years. And, Tan added, when he leaves office he'll become a "friend of China."

The Congressional WTO vote later this month will let Taiwan know how much of an effective friend Congress continues to be. If Clinton wins then Taiwan faces only one choice: either become a part of Greater China or set out on the perilous path of a Taiwanese identity.

In recent times identity politics have had a few successes, India being the greatest example, but mostly they have not fared well. In the former Yugoslavia they produced bloody tragedies. An intensifying identity war in Sri Lanka is quickly leading to greater tragedies. In Spain's Basque region an identity war could break out. The Basque nationalist leader, following the teachings of a woman who lived a century ago, holds Basques are only Basque if each has four grandparents of pure Basque blood.

In Taiwan the vice-president designate Annette Lu from the DPP made a remark that particularly enraged Mainland Chinese, She said we Taiwanese are "distant relatives [of the Chinese] but close neighbors." The DPP was founded after the Nixon shock gave rise to this view among many Taiwanese.

Till the 1500's peoples similar to those of the Philippines inhabited Taiwan. After the Manchu conquest of China in 1644 thousands of "Ming loyalists" fled to Taiwan. By the end of the century they had submitted to the Manchus. In the late 1870's the Japanese took it and held it until 1945. Four years later history repeated itself when two million refugee mainlanders poured in.

Taiwan's newly distant friend America has warned it sternly not to declare independence. President elect Chen Shui-pien prefers a path of "no unification and no independence." Beijing responds it won't accept such waffling while ordering ever more military maneuvers. And throughout Overseas Chinese communities angry fault-lines are opening up.

No doubt a climax is fast nearing. If Chen Shui-pien tries to sidestep this question in his May 20 inaugural address he will merely be sacrificing his leadership on its first day. If he publicly rejects unification then Taiwan could become an even worse Kosovo. A lot of voices in Taiwan and on the Mainland are saying: "why not accept an agreement on 'one China' made years ago secretly by both sides." That agreement is both sides publicly accept the two Chinese characters for one China and then proceed to more important matters.

If that is what he does it will in effect bury Taiwan's identity politics and open up the Greater China freeway.