By Franz Schurmann

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Prediction #64 for Tuesday, June 13, 2000

Hafez the Lion of Syria Began Rule by Massacring a City but Left Behind an Aura of Trust

When he heard the news that Syrian president Hafez al-Asad had died President Clinton said "while we had our disagreements, I always respected him." He, of course, knows that in February 1972 Asad committed mass murder.

Starting on February 2, 1982 and lasting 27 days, President Asad ordered the shelling of Hama, one of Syria's major cities some 150 miles north of Damascus. According to the Syrian Human Rights Committee that operates outside of Syria a third of the city was completely destroyed. Some 30,000 to 40,000 civilians were killed. Another 15,000 were never accounted for. Why?

Only a few months earlier on October 6, 1981, members of the Muslim Brotherhood had assassinated Egyptian president Anwar Sadat. The Brotherhood had been founded during the 1930's in Egypt by Hassan Al-Banna. He allegedly was killed on orders of Egypt's General Gamal Abdul-Nasser. Sadat too was a general and so was Asad. The destroyed district of Hama had become a major center of the Brotherhood in Syria. Clearly Asad struck massively and brutally to prevent the same from happening to him.

When great leaders say they do or don't respect another leader they mean something different from what ordinary people mean by respect. Fear and greed shape a good part of international relations, especially among the great powers. But fear freezes relations and greed leads to conflict. Trust among leaders is needed to move those relations into productive directions. By contrast, for most people respect means being taken seriously. And that is the vital first step towards friendship and love.

Consider the relationship between Franklin Roosevelt and Adolf Hitler. In the summer of 1938 FDR arranged for the Munich conference between Germany, France, Britain and Italy that September to resolve the Czechoslovakia crisis. The US could not participate because of the Neutrality Act of 1935. When the crisis was resolved British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain exulted "we have won peace in our time." FDR too was happy.

But in March 1939 Hitler broke his word and swallowed Czechoslovakia. That made World War II inevitable ----- it came on September 1, 1939. Soon thereafter Chamberlain fell from power and his name thereafter came to connote "appeasement of dictators." When Nazi troops swarmed into Prague FDR called Hitler a liar and vowed to destroy him. He missed seeing that by less than a month in April 1945.

When Clinton said he respected Asad despite their disagreements he had something concrete in mind. With the unexpectedly premature Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon the way had been cleared for a final settlement between Israel, Syria and Lebanon. Though the Western media wrote off the Clinton-Asad Geneva meeting in May as a "failure," Arab sources called it a success. Asad was ready for an agreement, they said, but wanted deeds, not words, from the Israelis.

Over the years since 1982 respect for Asad kept on growing in Israel and the West. That he was firmly in power was one reason. But the biggest reason was that he could be trusted. On the one hand he was perceived as never straying far from his basic values and goals. That was evident in his iron-clad position on the Golan Heights. He demanded that Israel return every square inch she had taken from Syria during the June 1967 war.

On the other hand he also was shrewd and flexible. Consider his relations with his brother Rifa'at. Rifa'at was the chief enforcer of the Hama massacre. Yet in later years he began to drift towards the Brotherhood. He grew a beard and went regularly to mosque. But this time his brother Hafez decided the Brotherhood could be useful rather than dangerous and himself approached them. He showed his changed attitudes by having Rifa'at placed under house arrest in their home town Latakia on Mediterranean shores.

Another instance of his political astuteness came when he ordered Syrian troops to enter Lebanon. Outwardly the move was aimed at ending the bloody sectarian war going on in Lebanon. But his main aim was saving the Christian rightwing Phalangists from defeat by the rising Druze and Shi'a leftist forces. That rescued Lebanon's fragile sectarian power balance and checked growing Lebanese nationalism.

Hafez al-Asad had long been preparing his succession. He suffered from various illnesses during the 30 years he was in power. At first he selected his eldest son, Basil. But Basil was killed in the early 1990's in a car accident. Then he started grooming another son, Beshar, as successor. Washington hopes Beshar will soon re-enter the peace process. But it is too early for Bill and Beshar, separated by 20 years in age, to have trust in each other.

Israeli and Lebanese leaders too had respect for Hafez al-Asad and it will take time for them to size up the 34 year old Beshar. But before he died Hafez had already made some key changes in government that set the stage for peace. Economic experts who want an opening up to the world to revitalize the country's stagnant economy now dominate the Syrian government.

Economic opening up can easily lead to greed. But Hafez al-Asad did a lot to bring down the walls of fear surrounding Syria. That bodes well for both Lebanon and Syria. And so even in death the trust Hafez the Lion of Syria fostered has a chance of bringing peace and prosperity to the region.