By Franz Schurmann

---

Prediction #66 for Tuesday, June 27, 2000

Is It Or Not A Coincidence That Al Gore's And Taiwan's Political Destiny Are Now Linked?

If Attorney General Reno appoints a special prosecutor to investigate illegal campaign fundraising by Vice-President Gore before the Democratic National Convention meets on August 14 it is not impossible he could drop out of the presidential race.

The accusations against Gore relate to a visit he made on April 29, 1996 to the Buddhist Hsi Lai Temple in Los Angeles. One of his "long time supporters," Maria Hsia, who arranged the visit to the temple, was convicted last March of perjury and covering up $109,000 in illegal contributions.

But a more serious accusation was made just before the 1996 presidential election. According to a Los Angeles Times report of November 1, 1996 a former White House aide, Mark Middleton, allegedly solicited US$15 million from the Kuomintang (KMT), the then ruling party of Taiwan. A Taiwan public relations consultant, C. P. Chen, had long been leveling these charges anonymously but he made news when he went public.

Earlier this year Taiwan had a presidential election. Before Chen Shui-bien, leader of the pro-independence Democratic People's Party (DPP), won, the Taiwan media reveled in revelations of shady funding by the KMT. At that time information surfaced that the KMT was by far the richest political party in the world. It had some US$10 billion in cash and easily liquifiable assets.

The KMT spread its cash around the world, seeking supporters to offset its powerful rival in Mainland China. Many budgets of poor and small countries in Central America and Africa benefited from KMT donations. The KMT's aim was to accumulate so much foreign support, especially in the US, that China would have to accept former President Lee Teng-hui's solution to the Cross-Straits crisis through recognition of two Chinese states.

Did Al Gore knowingly accept "hard money" contributions when he went to the temple four years ago? Many Temple members vigorously deny it. One who was there the day of Gore's visit writes he knew all the donors and all were long time givers to benevolent projects. In 1995 this writer visited one of the creed's many worldwide sister temples in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Its many buildings covered over 30 acres and the creed's good works were plentifully evident.

Even if no money changed hands when Gore visited the Temple his presence gave Taiwan a boost. Only a short time before the visit, an American aircraft carrier sailed through the Taiwan Straits. This move was widely interpreted in Taiwan and America as a warning to Beijing that the US would intervene if China used military force to take Taiwan.

Taiwan then had many strong supporters in Congress. It regarded Gore as one of those supporters. And since President Clinton at the time had made no major moves on US-China relations Taiwan could validly consider Clinton a friend as well. But now all that has changed.

Shortly into his second term Clinton started moving ever closer to Beijing. Last year a fierce anti-China opposition surfaced in the US fueled by both the right and the left. The climax came in the WTO vote last May by the House. Ironically Taiwan has long favored China's entry into the WTO. But the vote was really not about trade but about US-China relations. It was a titanic battle between those who wanted closer ties with China versus those who backed Taiwan. The latter lost ----- badly.

Four days after Chen Shui-bien's inaugural the House made its historic vote. The KMT was in shambles, torn asunder by internal struggles. But its rival on the Mainland glories in growing power, stability and wealth. Prosperous Taiwan's main market by far is Mainland China.

In office only one month Chen has been struggling against China's enormous magnetism while trying to be faithful to his party's commitment to a Taiwan identity. But the old KMT war-horse is gone. And what used to be Taiwan's greatest friend, America, watches silently as the political neophytes in power don't know what to do.

Vice-President Gore was the Clinton administration's point man for Russia policy. That policy is now in shambles. He was seen as an ardent advocate for environmentalism. He has lost that image to Ralph Nader. And, a few breaths away from becoming president, he was the most powerful of Taiwan's many American friends.

It's likely now that Taiwan will, sooner rather than later, somehow accommodate to Beijing's terms. So trailing nationally behind George W. Bush in the polls Al Gore may already be getting advice to re-think his run for the presidency.