By Franz Schurmann

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Prediction #67 for Tuesday, July 4, 2000

The Search For The Perfect Missile Defense Will Go On -- It's America's Holy Grail

{On Friday, July 7, after the results of the latest anti-missile missile test are announced, President Clinton will decide whether or not to go ahead with NMD development}

The American intelligence community has estimated that no country other than Russia or China will pose a long-range nuclear missile threat to North America over the next 15 years. And they don't expect either of them to launch an attack. So why is America on the verge of developing a National Missile Defense (NMD) and its counterpart a Theater Missile Defense (TMD)?

One answer is that TMD matters more to Washington strategists than the NMD. But a deeper answer comes from America's historic idealism.

From the days of the Civil War till now, once a new technology has come on the scene Americans won't stop tinkering with it until it's perfect. It's as if perfecting technology is an American ideal. And when the ideal is great it takes on the form of a Holy Grail. That means TMD is rather a stepping stone to NMD as the ultimate objective.

The Pentagon is a very long distance away from announcing a perfect missile defense that can thwart a Russian first strike against North America. Such a strike would occur with hundreds of nuclear missiles simultaneously launched. If even one missile got through it could inflict catastrophic damage on the targeted American city.

On the other hand if a first strike consisted only of a few missiles the chances of exploding all of them well before they reached North America could add up to a virtually perfect missile defense. While the Russians have thousands of intercontinental missiles the Chinese have only a few. A go decision for NMD would be aimed at China. And that is a major reason why China has not minced words to express its strong opposition.

But an even greater Chinese worry is that a go decision for NMD would also apply to TMD. While the technology is the same the NMD would be installed only in the 50 states while the TMD would be on the territory of America's far-flung allies. The "ally" the Chinese most worry about is Taiwan regarded by China as much an integral part of China as the Hawaiian Islands are of the USA.

It's no secret that many if not most Taiwan citizens want to be covered by an American security umbrella. Recently the Taiwan media showed a Republic of China (ROC) Phantom launching a Mica anti-missile missile ----- both American-made ----- and destroying an incoming missile in a simulated "enemy" attack. While the exercise took place over the Pacific there was no doubt that the enemy attacker was China.

It now seems that American troops will remain in South Korea even if North and South should achieve reunification. While there are no American forces on Taiwan one condition Washington could make for persuading Taiwan to accept reunification on Beijing's terms is setting up a TMD on Taiwan.

If all three players in the Taiwan conundrum agreed on such a scenario it could greatly further the new Pax Americana. Beijing will essentially achieve reunification on its terms, namely "one China" period. Taiwanese will feel relieved because the American security umbrella still protects them. And America will have drawn China into the Pax Americana the way Russia would be if it agreed to join NATO. This scenario suggests NMD is a cover for TMD.

But another scenario suggests the opposite that TMD is a stepping stone to NMD. This means that Washington will continue work on an NMD until it has made a perfect missile defense that some day will have a high probability of succeeding against any sized enemy missile force.

It's common knowledge that the great bulk of the technology that shaped the 20th century and even more so shapes this one originated in America. And most people would agree the technology has been beneficial, even when producing destructive side effects. The environmentalists have made convincing arguments to this effect.

But among the myriad of technologies Americans have invented only one stands out as evil, nuclear weapons. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were more than gigantic carnage They harmed future generations through their effect on inheritable genetic material. And if in the 1950's some experts extolled the good uses of nuclear reactors to produce electric power now everything nuclear looks tainted. Nuclear power whether used for carnage or growth has become the perfect evil.

America alone created this evil. And if America succeeds in creating a perfect missile defense it delivers atonement for that act. Then the scientists and engineers who perfect this new technology become crusaders fighting to regain the Holy Grail.

They will have succeeded in putting the evil genie of nuclear power back into the bottle.

And if they succeed then a perfect Pax Americana is conceivable. If China accepts TDM, Russia joins NATO and the world hails NMD that will reduce the chances of nuclear warfare to virtually zero. To make it a perfect zero all the plutonium and the nuclear waste would have to be successfully shot into the sun!