By Franz Schurmann

fschurmann@pacificnews.org

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Prediction #90 for Tuesday, July 25th, 2000

Taiwan Worries It Could Be "Sold Out" -- For Good Reason

Since Chen Shui-bian was sworn in as Taiwan's president on May 20 the 22 million people of Taiwan have been hit by several events undermining confidence in their personal and political future.

One has been the growing war of words over their relations with China. Another was the television coverage of four men pleading for help in a swollen river while rescuers dawdled and the men drowned. But the third may have aroused the deepest angst yet that Taiwan could be undemocratically "sold out" by its own government.

The drowning tragedy led to great public anger about the lack of concern for citizens. In talk shows people again and again brought up the incompetent rescue effort and shoddy housing construction made evident by last year's severe earthquake. The growing worry about the war of words comes out of fear that it could some day result in a real shooting war.

But the third event could in the end have the greatest effect. A Taiwan paper, "Business Week," published a scoop on a subject many Taiwanese as well as Mainlanders knew a lot but nobody put into print. The weekly revealed that former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui had used "secret envoys" to weave direct relations with Beijing.

Lee has been attacked and derided in the Mainland Chinese media more than any other Taiwan leader. Yet the revelations show he used secret envoys to reassure the "Chinese Communists," as Chinese leaders are always called in the Taiwan media, that he sincerely wanted to work out a "peaceful" reunification with China.

In the secret talks Beijing agreed to support Taiwan's entry into the World Trade Organization. As a result Beijing never raised the issue of Taiwan during the difficult talks about WTO membership. Another agreement called for direct cooperation to curtail smuggling on the China coast. This agreement came at a time Taiwan was publicly holding firm to its policy of no direct land, air or sea connections with China.

But more astonishing even than the secret diplomacy was the revelation that the entire relationship began through one of the most revered figures in a Chinese world where revered figures are in short supply. He is the 82 year old Master Nan Huaijin, one of China's greatest religious scholars but, even more important, arguably the world's greatest writer of tales of the supernatural.

In his prime he wrote a tale a month. His paper bound books were snapped up everywhere in the Chinese-reading world. He wrote about heroes and heroines, angels and demons (in the Chinese supernatural world these were called by the same name). The former had real bodies but not angels and demons. They flew at great speeds and immense distances in less than a second.

An admirer described his life-time achievements as teacher, lay monk, religious, philosopher, versed in Chinese literature and Zen practice. He called himself an "ordinary man" but, according to the admirer, his life was supernatural. But he also had close contacts with many influential people, including the two key figures in the secret diplomacy. One was Lee Teng-hui's first secretary, Su Chih-ch'ung. The other was Yang Sidu, a key member of the Beijing group.

But if Master Nan got Lee Teng-hui started on his secret relationship he also was the one who wrecked it. Once when the talk from both sides got very frank and daring, the Master suddenly pulled out a tape recorder and started recording. The Beijing people were alarmed. and left the room. Shortly thereafter Beijing said the Master could no longer serve as a conduit. They pointed out that secret envoys must have sealed mouths.

But though Master Nan left the scene the Beijing-Taipei relationship continued. A part of it became public through the "Cross-Straits Committee," co-chaired by two elders, Wang Daohan from the Mainland and Ku Chen-fu from Taiwan. But the secret talks continued. Not long after Chen Shui-bian was inaugurated rumors circulated that he already had "informal" conduits leading to Beijing.

For many centuries Chinese have had deep suspicions of their leaders. These views came from never knowing what the leaders believe in, if anything, beyond power. When the Business Week story came out politicians denounced Lee Teng-hui. But some of them also said "secret diplomacy is inevitable though in important matters there should be transparency." Statements like this only add to the distrust.

Many if not most Taiwanese hope they can achieve some sort of unification with their ancestral land. Yet at the same time they would also like to have some sort of American protection to make sure that leaders cannot sell them out. The leaders they have in mind are not just in Taipei and Beijing but in Washington as well.

Reinforcing the distrust is the announcement that agreement has been reached between Washington and Beijing for an American warship to visit Qingdao, a major Mainland Chinese port city. Many Taiwanese may be wondering whether the sell-out is continuing that Lee Teng-hui greatly furthered through his secret diplomacy.