The prediction and its wording are not from me. They are from American intelligence officers who, in the midst of the killing going on between Israelis and Palestinians, issued their estimation that the Taliban have won the war in Afghanistan and that "Islam is on the march."

A story on the killings by me went out on the PNS wire yesterday, October 3, 2000. I decided not to reprint the story here. I believe the new intelligence estimate was released as a message that a new revolutionary force has appeared on the world scene, namely Islamic fundamentalism or, as the Russians call it, Wahhabism.

The article below is taken from the Sabawoon News Network that is put on line by Afghans. It presents view from all sides in the Afghanistan conflict. Ahmad Shah Massoud is the last fighter in the Northern Alliance resisting the Taliban. In recent weeks Massoud has lost one key position after the other. The only region left is in remote Badakhshan, an area I spent some time in over 40 years ago. Chances are it too will fall to the Taliban.

Ahmed Rashid's piece below is interesting not because of Massoud but because in various parts of the world ----- Afghanistan, Kashmir, Central Asia, Chechnya and maybe now in the western Asia ----- the armies or guerrilla forces are becoming more and more international. To me this seems like the first significant revolutionary internationalism since the Communist Third International was formed in 1919.

Consider the following excerpts from the text below:

"Massoud is fighting not only the Taliban and the Pakistani volunteers but Islamic militants from other countries. Western relief workers and diplomats in the region say the 15,000-strong Taliban forces in the north include 3,000 Pakistani students, 1,000 Arabs lent by the wanted Saudi terrorist Osama Bin Laden and hundreds from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

"The Taliban have also recruited Chinese Muslims, Chechens and militants from Bangladesh, Kashmir and the Philippines. "Some 40 per cent of the Taliban force is made up of non-Afghans," Massoud says, a claim backed by Western officials."

Some of the explanation for this new phenomenon comes from Wahhabism. The Wahhabi movement arose 200 years ago in the Saudi heartland as fighters resisting the Ottoman Turkish Empire. The social core of Wahhabi beliefs is that all distinctions of race, ethnicity and class are meaningless. All humankind can only be divided into two groups, those who obey God and those who don't.

In 1919 a similar movement arose that taught all humans are divided into only two groups, those who oppress and those who are oppressed. Within months Communist parties and armies arose lickety-split all over the world. Ho Chi Minh, for example, was a founding member of the French Communist Party.

Could it be that Osama Bin Laden is becoming the Lenin of this new international movement?

Sabawoon News Network: Daily News Updates
Lion of Panjshir at Bay Against Taliban's Armies
Reported by: Ahmed Rashid (The Daily Telegraph)

10/3/2000 :: AHMAD SHAH MASSOUD, the guerrilla leader who made his name resisting the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the Eighties, has now been fighting for 22 years and the pressure is mounting. The fate of Afghanistan - and with it instability in Central Asia - could be decided in the next few weeks, as the Taliban try to eliminate the "Lion of Panjshir", their last serious opponent.

But, despite a serious loss of territory in recent weeks, Massoud remains defiant. From the relative safety of Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, he has sent his wife and family back to a base deep inside Afghanistan - sending a clear ''do or die'' message to his troops.

With the Taliban preparing for the next phase of their assault, he accuses Pakistan of sending two army brigades to support the offensive, which began in July. He said: "By sending a few more brigades in Afghanistan, Gen Musharraf [Pakistan''s military leader] cannot conquer the country or crush the resistance - we are very determined." Islamabad denies his claims.

Massoud continues to receive support from Russia, Iran, India and the Central Asian republics, which are opposed to the Taliban advance to Afghanistan''s borders with Central Asia. But his back is to the wall of the towering Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain ranges of Badakhshan, the last province under his control.

After capturing Taloqan, Massoud''s political capital, on Sept 5 the Taliban now control more than 90 per cent of the country. They aim to take Badakhshan before winter snows set in by the end of this month. They are advancing northwards from Taloqan and eastwards from Kunduz, and Afghanistan''s border with Central Asia. A third force of 2,000 Pakistani Islamic students has already tried to enter Badakhshan from the Pakistani city of Chitral to the east.

Massoud and Burhanuddin Rabbani, the Northern Alliance leader who is still recognised by much of he world as the Afghan president, ran Afghanistan from 1992 to 1996 but were then ousted from Kabul by the Taliban. Massoud still controls patches of territory north of Kabul and in central Afghanistan, but all these forces could be cut off if Badakhshan falls.

Massoud is fighting not only the Taliban and the Pakistani volunteers but Islamic militants from other countries. Western relief workers and diplomats in the region say the 15,000-strong Taliban forces in the north include 3,000 Pakistani students, 1,000 Arabs lent by the wanted Saudi terrorist Osama Bin Laden and hundreds from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

The Taliban have also recruited Chinese Muslims, Chechens and militants from Bangladesh, Kashmir and the Philippines. "Some 40 per cent of the Taliban force is made up of non-Afghans," Massoud says, a claim backed by western officials.

With the Taliban advance up to Afghanistan''s borders with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and China, the Central Asian republics are paralyzed with fear. About 25,000 Russian troops and border guards man the 1,200-mile border with Afghanistan, which has been closed.

According to relief agency officials, 90,000 Afghan refugees fleeing the Taliban advance are camping in the mountains and pressing up against the border to enter Tajikistan, a poverty- and drought-stricken country recovering from a five-year civil war. An aid official said: "These numbers could triple if Badakhshan falls and, with winter snows approaching, a massive humanitarian tragedy is engulfing the region."

International efforts to end the fighting have been half-hearted at best. President Imomali Rakhmanov of Tajikistan said last week: "The Afghan conflict is becoming a growing threat to peace and security in the region and beyond." Russia, China and America have sent military aid in recent weeks to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan but there is no serious diplomatic effort to end the fighting.