By Franz Schurmann

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Prediction #13 for Tuesday, May 11th,1999

U.S.-China Playing Field Evens Out -- Good for World Peace

• Introduction:
  

  The last few days aroused a lot of my old fears that war is always around the corner. Yet so far I have not seen any gloom and doom images in my crystal ball giving rise to similar predictions. Nor have I for the one below.

  My friend Peter Dale Scott did a PNS piece reminding us that "during the Vietnam War era, U.S. forces hit political targets, specifically embassies, just when international peace initiatives looked promising." In 1966 Peter, Reggie Zelnik and I did a quick-book called "The Politics of Escalation." The implication of the book was pretty grim: once armies get going nothing but victory or disaster can stop them. So we stressed the disaster scenarios --- in other words, chaos.

  That was a time of economic boom --- as now. In those days the US economy was still continentally isolated. The only oil we imported was from Venezuela which wasn't really foreign because the Rockefellers owned the oil fields and a lot of land surrounding them. Americans fought a war out there somewhere but at home were at peace.

  Now, just about everybody in the world is linked to the global economy. At its center is America. Till not so long ago when wars threatened oil prices would go up --- because of fear of shortages, it was said. No more now. They still do go up and down but some people --- in certain governments and corporations --- seem able to adjust global prices the way one manipulates a well working water faucet. The oil markets so far haven't paid attention to the Kosovo war.

  And so far as gold is concerned Tony Blair announced Britain was getting rid of most of its gold reserves. That announcement came when NATO bombing was going into higher and higher gear. The traditional link between gold and war too seems gone.

  The Chinese-language World Journal is worried that the war against Orthodox Serbia could again ignite the Balkan powder keg. But the Pope had a good visit in Orthodox Romania with the usual heart-felt but ineffectual calls for peace. Orthodox Bulgaria is allowing NATO to use some of its facilities. American aircraft headed for Serbia will soon take off from largely Catholic Hungary. War and peace seem to go together, like Neopolitan flavored ice-cream.

  The first two days after the Chinese embassy bombing China markets tumbled but elsewhere in East Asia they soared. Today it appears to be the reverse: China markets are up but the other East Asian big ones are down.

  Another comment from the WJ editorial is definitely worrisome: "NATO bombing could become a kind of 'model' ... Western powers sometime in the future might use the human rights or Tibet issues as an excuse to make China a second Yugoslavia."

  The Wall Street Journal of May 10 talks of China having "18 rickety missiles compared to thousands in the US." Its conceivable that the US could quickly neutralize these 18 ICBMs and then keep on peppering China with cruise missiles the way they're doing in Yugoslavia.

  Iraq and Yugoslavia are two currently demonized ("rogue") states getting the peppering treatment. But their neighbors for the most part are at peace. And the US has just de-demonized Libya, Iran and the Sudan. For all practical purposes Cuba and Fidel have also been de-demonized.

  In medieval Islamic political philosophy a distinction was made between two human conditions: a "house of peace" and a "house of war." The behaviors for each were different. In the contemporary world the two kinds of houses could be lined up neatly like Neapolitan ice cream or jumbled up like Pecan Praline.

  The Internet is my crystal ball. And I see a lot of houses of different colors, some line up neatly, others jumbled. But like the Internet itself I see more of the peace colors, fewer of the war colors.

• Prediction:
  

  Wars will go on. Newer ones will erupt as the older ones end. But the greater part of the global picture will show peace, prosperity and a fierce drive for wealth by those who don't enjoy prosperity.

  My test-case for the general direction the world is moving is the quality of relations between America which has the world's number one economy and China which, according to recent findings, has the world's number two economy.

  I predict those relations will settle down to an all-around peace direction by the end of this year.

• Outcome:
  The evaluation date is December 28, 1999

In this prediction I'm going to present some prose which I didn't write but saw in my crystal ball which, of course, is the Netscape Navigator screen. Below is my translation of an editorial from the Chinese-language, Singapore-based Lianhe Zaobao of today, May 11, 1999. Website: http://www.asia1.com.sg/zaobao/

It's rare I agree entirely with anything that I have read. This time I can't find anything in the following editorial with which I disagree though I may have put it differently.

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The NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade has ignited a fierce anti-Americanism in China. Anti-American demonstrations have been unleashed with tempers flaring.

The Chinese government has taken anti-American measures. It suspended high-level exchanges between the Chinese and American militaries. It postponed negotiations on a number of key issues: nuclear proliferation, arms control, international security etc. It suspended US-China human rights talks.

Bombing another country's embassy is something unimaginable. Neither side expected what happened after the bombing. According to the CIA the bombing was the result of intelligence failure. This explanation makes no sense and so a lot of people wonder whether the bombing wasn't intentional.

The US and NATO apologized. President Clinton was profuse in his admissions of error and apologies. But he didn't voice any regrets and his haste to blame it all on Milosevic gave his words a hegemonic tone. The arrogance of his remarks was a key factor in arousing such enormous rage among Chinese.

But let's look at reality. Whether the bombing was intentional or not both sides, American and Chinese, know perfectly well what the bottom lines are. China is in no position to challenge America militarily nor can it do much to help Yugoslavia or impact on the Balkan military scene. No matter how much the bombing got a lot of people upset the Americans know China can't go too far. It can't risk a head-to-head confrontation with America.

The Chinese are well aware of the relative strength of the two sides. China needs to continue developing its economy. Any kind of military action it got involved would be highly detrimental to it. China wants not the slightest military tiff with America.

But this doesn't mean China will suffer insults and beg for survival. Not only have the huge demonstrations shown this but Chinese vice-premier Hu Jintao in an unprecedented TV appearance castigated NATO and encouraged people to demonstrate against the US. This was to show that China takes this bombing very seriously.

The situation has evolved way beyond what both sides expected. No question that Sino-American relations have been badly hit. Yet looking at the bigger picture this is just a trough in the ups-and-downs of their relations. What matters is that both get beyond this trough so relations can heal.

China's anti-American moves have a double aim. Vis-a-vis America, aside from chastising and protesting, China has postponed or halted co-operation with America on issues of importance to the latter. This is a way of hurting American interests through non-military means. Vis-a-vis the domestic scene these moves show that China is moving from a passive to an active role in the world. The government used this opportunity to take the leadership in arousing strong patriotic sentiments among the people.

These last years China has been pushing economic development. At a time when everybody is seeking to make money a sense of freedom is rapidly spreading. The up-tight conditions of earlier times are loosening up. This year already has seen the 80th anniversary of the great May 4th Movement of 1919. It will soon see the 10th anniversary of the Tiananmen uprising of 1989 on June 4 and then on October 1 the 50th anniversary of the founding of the PRC. The Chinese leadership finally found a burning issue they long were looking for around which the people could rally. This also helps clear up a lot of bad things left over from the turbulent past.

In this sense the bombing of the embassy was an amazing stroke of luck for the leadership. It has aroused a powerful sentiment of protecting home and country among the people. This is giving Chinese a tremendous thrust forward into the 21st century.

Of course leaders hope to use public opinion for their own benefit. That's true in every country. But public opinion is like water. It can carry ships along but it also can overturn them. If China's leaders carefully handle the angry mood of the people and get it to move in positive directions this will have productive effects for the country without the government losing control. This is the test of wisdom the Chinese leadership now faces. And if it succeeds it will offer an opportunity for the social and moral development of China.

China's forceful reaction against the bombing has also given China advantages with world public opinion. That can even have positive effects on the Yugoslav situation. When NATO started using the big stick against Yugoslavia, the all-pervasive human rights talk coming from the Western countries made world opinion believe that "hegemonic power is doing the right thing." But the attack on the Chinese embassy is arousing doubts in world opinion about NATO's behavior. People are asking whether NATO is fighting a war for the sake of human rights or just trampling on them. Has NATO in fact been riding roughshod over international agreements and national sovereignty fighting for some grand divine mission?

NATO has committed a great misdeed this time. It's now in a bind as it has to move ahead in what now is the difficult terrain of world public opinion.