By Franz Schurmann

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Prediction #15 for Tuesday, May 25th,1999

There Will be a Ground War in Kosovo

• Introduction:
  

  The above doesn't look like my prediction but it is. Like many others I now believe a NATO march into Kosovo will soon begin and that, as Sergeyev warned, its forces could go all the way to Belgrade.

  If President Clinton can pull off a March on Belgrade then he will have outdone President Bush who stopped Operation Desert Storm in January 1991 just as American-led ground forces were ready for their March on Baghdad.

  I agree with the conclusion of today's editorial in the Chinese-language Singapore Lianhe Zaobao: "Even as they prepare themselves to become peace-keeping forces NATO wants them not only as the core of those forces but as the victorious occupiers of Kosovo." Clinton is out for victory, nothing less.

  Yet at the very time he is planning to unleash American ground forces his political foes are mounting the fiercest attack against him since impeachment was voted by the House. Trent Lott has come out vehemently against any commitment of ground forces in the Kosovo war. Christopher Cox's huge China spying report by innuendo accuses members of the Clinton administration of virtual treason. NATO spokespersons keep on denying that the 50,000 strong new peacekeeping ground force will conduct a hostile entry into Kosovo. But yesterday Robin Cook called on NATO to commit ground forces "even if they should encounter resistance from Serb soldiers."

  When President Johnson committed US ground forces to Vietnam on July 31, 1966 there was little opposition from Congress. But less than two years later Bobby Kennedy and many others in the Democratic Party revolted against LBJ. On March 31, 1968 Democrat LBJ backed off from the Vietnam War and also from his re-election candidacy.

  The political result was Republican Nixon's victory in November 1968. I believe the Republicans now are pursuing a similar strategy. They want to destroy Clinton politically by hitting him hard on Kosovo and China. They know that the American public does not want American soldiers coming back home in body bags. And there is enough patriotism left in the country to convince a lot of people that China is a deadly enemy which took advantage of our generosity.

  And they have plenty of allies in the Democratic Party who hate Clinton both as a new imperial president and a moral disgrace. If this anti-Clinton right-left alliance triumphs the Republicans feel they have a chance to capture the presidency. And the dissident Democrats will have captured their own party.

  As in the Vietnam era so now too foreign war and foreign policy are at the core of the politics.

  For some years now there has been talk in certain strategic circles about a "rim strategy." That strategy calls for America to ally itself with lands on the rim of the great Eurasian land mass. That means Japan, South Korea and Taiwan in the east, India and the Middle East in the south and Europe in the west. It so happens most of these countries are democratic.

  Left out are the two great heartland countries: Russia and China. Also left out is a smaller but also heartland country: Iran. Much of the culture and civilization of Central Asia is Iranian.

  What this amounts to is a back-to-the-future Cold War II. As earlier China and Russia will be the major enemies. Iran which underwent its own radical revolution --- not guided by Marxism but by Islam --- has been added to the pack.

  In the early 1970's a similar left-right coalition did much to wreck Nixon's policies of peace and co-operation with both Russia and China. Liberal Washington Senator Henry Jackson with close ties to organized labor was a key figure in rekindling the Cold War with Russia. And while the doors to China were finally opened by Nixon it took until 1979 for diplomatic recognition to be agreed on.

  Clinton's foreign policy since 1995 has aimed in the opposite direction. Centerpieces of his policy were peace and co-operation with Russia and China. And equally central was his reconciliation with Iran. And that reconciliation is the foundation of the across-the-board Middle East settlement planned for this summer.

  The showdown has now come. Clinton has to win in Kosovo in order to prevail over the opposition assailing him by Congress and the media. And he has to prevail with his new China policy.

  He is not without weapons. In the Pacific he has strong support from the Pentagon. The new commander of American Pacific forces, Admiral Dennis Blair, recently said in a talk to diplomats, military officers and businessmen that at present China doesn't even constitute a hypothetical threat to any country." And his predecessor retired Admiral Joseph Prueher is the new US ambassador to China.

  In the Atlantic region he has NATO. The best scenario for Clinton is to achieve victory in Kosovo with open or tacit support from both Russia and China. That is difficult but not impossible. Chinese defense chief Chi Haotian, in a meeting with his Russian counterpart, called for the dissolution of NATO. But Admiral Blair, well aware of the sentiments in China, called for rapid resumption of military ties between the American and Chinese armed forces. "In order to solve our problems we can't just talk off and on, like clicking the lights off and on."

  In the next month or so, if Clinton achieves some sort of NATO victory in Kosovo, keeps good relations with Russia and manages China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) then he will have won the battle with his enemies. If not the world will be in for dangerous times.

• Prediction:
  NATO ground forces will soon enter Kosovo. There is a good chance that the entry will occur with some kind of Serbian acceptance. There is also a chance there could be casualties as fighting between the Serbs and the KLA draws NATO forces in.

• Outcome:
  June 8th, 1999
  Last weekend the American media called the Kosovo settlement a Clinton winner. Then came the break-up of the talks between NATO and Serbian military officers. Then the wrangling in the Security Council over a UN resolution on the agreement. But Clinton seemed unworried, just "bumps in the road." And even if the generals wouldn't sign the agreement Milosevic did and the Yugoslav parliament ratified it.

  Milosevic is alive and still in power. But because he and his top four aides are indicted war criminals he is not given much chance of political survival. The drum-beat from Britain, America's staunch ally, to get rid of Milosevic doesn't augur well for him.

  We have to wait and see what happens to the Yugoslav Army when Milosevic leaves office, alive or dead. It's possible the Serbian generals might get rid of Milosevic as part of a deal with NATO to preserve the Yugoslav army along with their powers and privileges.

  The phrase "meekly" may not be appropriate but the fact remains that NATO members have indeed fallen in line behind the peace process. Its demands that no peace plan go into effect until the UN resolution is passed doesn't mean that the Russians have opted out. Russia is playing a key role, duly accepted by the White House.

  Though he canceled his China trip 30 minutes before take-off Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari --- the European Union's Kosovo envoy --- is expected soon to go. It's evident Clinton wants China to play its part in the peace process.

  There is a good chance that a few months from now Prediction #10 could get a virtually perfect score. The main thing that could bring the score down would be Milosevic's remaining in power like Saddam Hussein. But Saddam was never indicted as a war criminal as has been Milosevic.

  The primary phrase in this prediction is the first sentence: "I predict that Clinton will once again win." Whether Milosevic stays or not is secondary. Though there is a lot of opposition to the agreement the tone of the world media is still to see it as a Clinton victory and a Milosevic defeat.

  I cannot foresee what will happen over the rest of this week. I don't think the breakdown of the talks is fundamental. So I will rate Prediction 10 as 90% correct.

There is no need for any lengthy justification of the prediction. NATO ground force build-up has been going on for some weeks now. The strong advocacy by close American ally Britain for entry into Kosovo and Clinton's own edging ever closer to ground force use indicates that in the not too distant future NATO ground forces will be deep in Kosovo, without or with Serb resistance

The broader implications are discussed above in the Introduction.