By Franz Schurmann

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Prediction #21 for Tuesday, July 13th,1999

In Y2K America Will Dominate the World as Never Before Seen or Imagined

• Prediction:
  Question: Will 2000 See a unipolar, bipolar or multipolar world?
  Prediction 21: It will be all three with America central to all poles.

• Outcome:
  I shall evaluate Prediction #21 on January 5, 2000.

In 1991 when the Soviet Union disintegrated that marked the end of worldwide Communism. Observers added: it also marked the end of a bipolar world.

In the following years two new polarities began to be discussed as successors to bipolarity: unipolarity and multipolarity. In common parlance the former was usually called "America the solo superpower." The latter never made it to common parlance but was mainly discussed in learned publications. In any case it seemed to most people that polarization was no longer a big issue in the post-Soviet world.

When the Kosovo war erupted multipolarity suddenly became a common expression among those who vehemently opposed NATO's war. And the opponents replaced the bland word unipolarity with the more biting expression "hegemonism."

Opponents comprised much more than a few angry left-wingers. China, Russia and India were the main great power opponents. Opposition was vocal among both European leftists and rightists. Opposition from both wings in the US was also extensive and intensive. Throughout Asia, Africa and Latin America opposition was more common than support.

The opposition rallied around multipolarity. Consider the following remarks by Russian president Yeltsin:

"Today as the foundations for the new multipolar world order in the 21st century are being built we must make sure there will no further trampling on international rights, unilateral use of force, blackmail and dictatorial behavior" (Izvestia, July 8, 1999).

Before Serbia caved in to NATO demands there was widespread fear that Cold War II could be beginning. Even though the Kosovo fear has subsided other fears are breaking through the ground. Before Kosovo there was a shared sense that henceforth world conflict would be non-military: political, economic, cultural. Now, however, there is growing apprehension that maybe 2000 could see not world peace but more wars in the world.

The central question of Cold War I was: which of the two superpowers, the US or the USSR, would end up dominating the world? By 1992 it was generally agreed that the US had won the Cold War. But if war no longer was an option then domination could not be absolute. Now that optimism is gone.

If we are in effect sliding into Cold War II then the question of Prediction #21 will be asked by more and more global observers. Many, if not most, would likely not agree with my answer. As I have done with previous questions I will continue by providing information about the polarity issue and then offering a number of signs to undergird my prediction that some time next year the world will be simultaneously unipolar, bipolar and multipolar with America central to all poles. In effect I predict America will become the great global hegemon its opponents so much fear.

When the US was stuck in the Vietnam War President Johnson seemed confident he could wriggle out of that quagmire by making a deal with the Soviet Union. His thinking was widely shared by foreign policy elites. It can be characterized by a single word: bipolar.

In political language bipolar conveys a certain world view. According to that view when two mutually antagonistic powers dominate the world their relationship is characterized as bipolar.

From the late 1940's when the Cold War began till the late 1960's when the Sino-Soviet split became evident the relationship between the US and the USSR was bipolar. LBJ made some generous propositions to the Soviets in return for their pressuring North Vietnam to end the war on terms Washington could accept. Moscow, however, turned him down because it knew the bipolar US-Soviet world was vanishing --- it couldn't deliver.

Bipolar is a scientific word. Ever since the Cold War began American political elites often used language from physics and mathematics to characterize political practice. Knowingly or unknowingly along with this language came theories that could be applied. So scientific theory and political practice often went hand in hand.

In physics polarization designates electromagnetic forces moving in definite directions. Polarity's root word pole designates the two extremes of an axis whose forces at both ends move in opposite directions. One is arbitrarily called positive or negative. The other is always its opposite.

In electromagnetic nature opposites attract while identicals repel each other. Consider the following useful aspect of the electromagnetic polarity concept for explaining the Cold War US-Soviet relationship. Despite an arms race between them that many times could have led to World War III in the end conflict led to co-operation. Yet it was the "identical" two Communist giants, the Soviet Union and People's China, who turned viciously against each other, almost unleashing a massive and nuclear war between them. Mao Zedong also preached "fight-fight/talk-talk" but when the Sino-Soviet dispute got serious he refused to talk to his Soviet comrades.

I decided to put into my Predictions column some graphic images from science which I believe provide insights into the current arguments about new global polarities. One is of a monopole. Monopoles do not exist in nature but can be engineered in the laboratory. A second is of a dipole (dipole means both poles together). Dipoles occur everywhere in electromagnetic nature. The third is a sketch of a multipolar neuron in an organism's nervous system. So far as I can see the multipolarity concept does not appear to be used in other scientific areas.

I consider the monopole as a metaphor for political unipolarity, the dipole for political bipolarity and the neural multipolarity for the political multipolarity.

The monopole design shows forces radiating out from its core. This seems to me a correct description of America's world role, The publisher of Le Monde Diplomatique, Ignacio Ramonet, says America has all five classically imperial powers: political, military, economic, technological and cultural. It projects all five outward through political pressure and leadership, military intervention, export of key products, pushing high-tech innovation and flooding the world with cultural creations.

The dipole design shows two poles feeding into each other. As early as 1831 the American inventor Joseph Henry built an electromagnetic device which lifted 2,086 pounds. He helped create the vision of a vast productive use of electromagnetic energy that would became an enormous boon to humanity all over the world.

The multipolar design shows the outward branching of several dendrites. The dendrites carry signals towards the neuron's core, the soma. Each dendrite is considered a pole and each is linked to a single soma of the neuron. The visual appearance is that of a tree with many branches. (The word dendrite comes from Greek dendron, "tree").

A tree has only one trunk and a neuron only one core. The way each branch/dendrite is attached to the trunk/core looks bipolar to me. Considering all the appendages one might call it multiple bipolarity.

Multiple bipolarity suggests another metaphor: a bicycle wheel. The wheel has a hub, spokes and a rim. Each spoke looks like a bipolarity linked to two extremes, the hub and the rim. This bipolarity gives it force but also holds it and every other spoke on the wheel in firm place.

The neural multipolarity and the engineered monopole suggest another metaphor for information flow. The former transmits information from the rim to the hub whereas the latter transmits information from the hub outward to the rim. Now consider the following "signs" about America's current global role:

• As already mentioned America directs major forces outward from its core --- like the engineered monopole.
• America now has "strategic partnerships" with several major nations. Chief among them are China and Russia. It has a similar relationship with Japan in the form of the now revised (new "guidelines") mutual security alliance with Japan. It also has similar relationships through NATO to some 18 NATO countries. NATO's three major powers are Germany, France and Britain. America has separate "special relationships" with all three.

  Here the bipolarity metaphor is useful in suggesting how co-operation and conflict can go together in an international relationship.

• America also has "special relationships" with a number of smaller powers: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, South Korea, Mexico, the smaller NATO countries, the Philippines, the Gulf countries and others.

  A quarter century ago Taiwan and Pakistan would also be on the list. Now their position has turned ambiguous. As of this writing Washington, now that the China-bashing tantrum in Congress has died down, seems once again moving closer to Beijing.

  < And for the first time America is moving closer to India and away from Pakistan. This is one reason I predicted in Prediction #20 political instability to come in Pakistan.

America is indeed a super-powerful hegemonic force as suggested by the monopole and neural multipolarity metaphors.

At the same time it has multiple bipolar relationships in which both information and force are exchanged by both poles. The dipole metaphor is one of both conflict and co-operation. The special relationship linkage suggests a combination of both monopole and dipole metaphors. The smaller power benefits from America's enormous power. Yet at the same time it sends key information and even transmits some power to America useful for its role in the world. There are several ways of testing the prediction.

• What's happening to the strategic partnerships with China and Russia as well as the US-Japan Security Treaty?
• What's happening to US relations with Britain, France and Germany? Britain is moving quite close to America while the Franco-American link seems ambiguous? I think it is not clear exactly what the German-American relationship is. Most likely the Germans themselves don't know what it is.
• But perhaps the most significant tests will be Taiwan and Pakistan. China now clearly wants America to downgrade --- and maybe even eliminate ---its special relationship with Taiwan as condition for re-normalization of the US-China strategic partnership. As to Pakistan there is, in my view, a good chance that at some point the US will seek a strategic partnership with India. If that happens Clinton will visit New Delhi. If he doesn't then go on to Islamabad Pakistan will know the writing is on the wall (Daniel 5:5).

IF --- all test results are positive (meaning going in the same direction as the Prediction) America, like it or not, will be an Empire of truly Darth Vaderian dimensions.

BUT IF --- the test results are mixed then there is hope for the world. Luke Skywalker where are you?

AND IF --- the test results are all negative then we people of the world could be in for a lot of Chaos.