Vectors | Voices | Heresies | Pacific Pulse | The Americas | California | Movements | Civil Conflicts | YO!
By Franz Schurmann
General Prediction #25 for Tuesday, August 10,1999
America Will Come Out Ahead --- The USA Will Fall Behind
- INTRODUCTION:
Proposition: America = USA. Yes or no? Answer: No
Until around a quarter century ago most people here and abroad --- with the exception of many South Americans --- agreed that America = USA.
America meant people with a distinct language and culture. USA meant the geographical place enclosed by the political boundaries of its states. USA and America were just different ways of saying the same thing.
However, more and more people now see America and the USA as different entities. The USA still remains the political entity comprising fifty states and a few territories (Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Guam plus some other islets). But America's scope now encompasses the entire globe.
Ignacio Ramonet, publisher of the Paris-based Le Monde Diplomatique, calls it the biggest empire in history. All empires, he said, have five kinds of power: political, military, economic, technological and cultural. America has all five.
On August 6 the Wall Street Journal published an article called "American Doctrines." It listed the Monroe, Truman, Eisenhower, Nixon, Carter and Reagan doctrines. "President Clinton," writes Bob Davis, has now propounded "a Clinton Doctrine of military intervention that amounts to the following: tyrants beware."
Of all presidents starting with FDR only Lyndon Johnson tried to get America back to the USA. His Vietnam War ended in a humiliating defeat. In 1972 George McGovern campaigned on a theme of "Come Home, America." Nixon won in a landslide.
The White House, Pentagon, State Department, the intelligence agencies etc. in effect have become the command and control centers of the American empire. On the other hand Congress is still loyally wedded to the USA. Its members get elected in boundary defined political districts.
Since the early seventies several major clashes have broken out between Congress and the White House: Watergate against Nixon, Jackson-Vanik against Ford, Iran-Contra-gate against Reagan, impeachment and then the China-spying attack against Clinton. I interpret each one of them as arising out of the fundamentally different world views of the White House and Congress.
Congress remains a fervent defender of the identity America = USA. On the other hand, the White Housed knows that America is becoming ever bigger than the USA. In symbols this can be written graphically as America >>>>>USA.
SPECIFIC PREDICTION #25: America will tilt more towards the PRC and away from Taiwan
- Outcome:
The outcomes of Prediction #24 (August 3, 1999) and Prediction 25 (August 10, 1999) are related. On August 10 I wrote:
"Last week I predicted that China will decide not to join the WTO. The evaluation date is September 28, 1999. This week I predict that America is going to tilt more towards China and away from Taiwan. The evaluation date is identical, September 28, 1999."
EVALUATION: Whether China does or does not meet the effective deadline for World Trade Organization (WTO) entry before November 30, I rate both predictions taken together as ----- pretty much on target.
ANALYSIS OF OUTCOMES:
Today September 28 Reuters reported: "China trade negotiator Long Yongtu said Tuesday China and the United States were 'very close' to a deal on Beijing entering the World Trade Organization (WTO) but cited a long list of topics which needed clarification."
But on September 22 Ruan Cishan, special correspondent for the Singapore-based Lianhe Zaobao wrote: "The chances for China joining the WTO this year are getting lower and lower." He based his evaluation on a remark made by President Jiang Zemin to President Clinton during their recent meeting at the APEC conference in New Zealand: "You are in a hurry; I'm not."
On February 23 I predicted in Prediction #2: "By the time of the WTO's next meeting on November 30 in Seattle China will be a full member."
Confusing? No, I don't think so.
Less confusing is the outcome of Prediction #25 of August 10. It is very clear that the Clinton Administration has definitely tilted away from Taiwan towards the PRC, This was made quite clear at the APEC meeting. The star performers were Jiang and Clinton. Clinton, when asked about a deal on China's entry into WTO said: "I am neither pessimistic nor optimistic." Taken together with Jiang's remark "You are in a hurry; I'm not," it's clear Clinton was more eager for the deal that Jiang.
But even clearer is the fact that the White House rapidly and completely shot down Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui's "two states" gambit. Lee was making one of his several tricky but interesting moves by advancing his "theory." In the Cross-Straits discussions the positions of both sides had frozen into endless repetition. Beijing said politics must precede economics in the discussions. Taipei said the reverse: first economics then politics.
But the two states theory is a political, not an economic, matter. What Lee did was accept Beijing's position but suddenly hit his opponent with a sharp jab to the jaw. Everybody saw the jab but did not see the positional shift. Lee broke the deadlock. Unfortunately for him the result was the opposite of what he intended.
Earlier this year Lee was getting a lot of support from the US Congress. He got open support from Republican members as well as the usual effusive support from the protectionist AFL-CIO. He also felt that he had put Clinton on the defensive. The American presidential campaign had begun and China was not an issue the Democrats wanted to see aired. Nor did some Republicans, like candidate Texas governor George W. Bush. His father has a long history of tilting toward Beijing despite selling arms to Taiwan during his (failed) reelection campaign of 1992.
In early August Clinton was quiet on China while the Congressional China-bashers were still roaring against their favorite foreign target, Now at the end of September it is the reverse. The White House is moving fast to resume its once close ties to China while Congress is astonishingly mute on China.
I don't think there's much mystery why. President Clinton just announced a whopping federal surplus of $115 billion! Where does all the money come from? Of course it comes from a full employment American economy. But where do all the salaries, wages and windfalls come from? Only one answer: a booming global economy.
The core of that economy is the Asia-Pacific region. On its eastern side is the political, military, technological, financial and cultural powerhouse America. On its western side is financial, economic and technological powerhouse Japan ----- and ----- vast China which is fast becoming the industrial heartland of the world ----- and --- several smaller giants like South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia. And looming up fast is another powerhouse that is going to surprise the world shortly into the next millennium: India.
America does not need Europe to survive. It needs Asia to survive. Even America's most hard-bitten China-haters know that the world's ever-running bull market depends primarily on peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific.
But watch and listen to what China is doing. For millennia China has always marched to its own drummer. It is doing so again, Yesterday the People's Daily, the official organ of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, published its long-awaited guidelines on reforming the state-owned industries.
It is a thin newspaper which is hard to find on Beijing newsstands. When you ask people why, they say it's too boring; nobody reads it ----- that is, with their morning tea, But people also know that it's oracle-like tone has to be taken seriously
State-owned industries in communist societies are much more than output-producing factories. They are ways of life, literally and metaphorically, for millions of people. Right at the beginning those guidelines reaffirmed socialism's most fundamental principle: the state is the first and foremost source of people's life and livelihood in society.
This is bad news for the privatization ideologues in the IMF, World Bank and Harvard. It's even worse news when the West looks at the shambles created by that ideology in Russia. China's leaders are not sure which direction to go in. A new figure, Hu Jintao, is emerging as a possible "successor." He is from Shanghai as are other older leaders. And Shanghai is rapidly developing into a key center of the global economy. That suggests China is quite ready to go into the WTO. But as Jiang Zemin said: "we are not in a hurry."
Why should they be in a hurry. Russian-speaking Jiang Zemin knows Russia well and many times has expressed his affection for that people and country. For people in coastal China America has long been their main model. But most people in China are still bound to the land. And the country which many of their intellectuals see as most closely resembling their own history is Russia. Russia now has become the world's premier negative model. And that is why the Chinese leaders are again doing what they have done for centuries and millennia: finding and listening to their own drummer.
Last week I predicted that China will decide not to join the WTO. The evaluation date is September 28, 1999. This week I predict that America is going to tilt more towards China and away from Taiwan. The evaluation date is identical, September 28, 1999.
There are now two areas of acute tension in East Asia: the Korean peninsula and the Taiwan straits. Observers fear possible war in both or one of these areas.
Most observers believe that if war should break out none of the four sides involved can win. The reason is that there is a fifth side whose political and military power could decide who wins and who loses: America. (Or should one say the USA?)
In the Korean crisis there does not appear to be any big disagreement in Washington about America's role. That role is one of interposition between South and North Korea to prevent hostile action.
On the other hand in the Straits crisis America's political role seems like two heads attached to same body each of which is giving signals going in opposite directions. One head is the White House and the other is Congress.
President Bush in his UN speech of September 1990 called America's role in the world a "new world order." President Clinton now is preparing a speech to be delivered in September where he will outline his own world order doctrine. It appears he will distinguish between America's role in Europe, the Middle East and Africa on the one hand and in the rest of the world on the other.
Through the Kosovo War America assumed a special responsibility in Southeastern Europe. America also has assumed a special responsibility for the Middle East through its special relationship with Israel and the centrality of oil in the world economy. When Clinton visited Africa last year it seemed that he was ready to extend the special relationship to some of the continent's countries as well.
But East Asia is a different matter. The White House does not regard Taiwan the same way it sees Israel. When Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui announced his "two Chinese states" view the White House quickly re-affirmed its commitment to "One China."
On the other hand several members of Congress have come out openly in opposition to Clinton. Many see Taiwan the same way they see Israel: both democracies and close friends of the USA.
Senator Jesse Helms (Rep. NC) proposes strengthening the Taiwan Relations act of 1979. And Congressman Benjamin Gilman (Rep. NY) flew to Taiwan to meet with President Lee. He came out in full support of Helms' proposal.
President Lee is counting on many US Senators and Representatives defying Clinton. If Congressional pressure forces Clinton to back down that will be a great political victory for Lee and his Kuomintang which faces a tough presidential race next year.
And Lee wants to inflict a political defeat on Clinton because the latter has been tilting away from Taiwan. That is what the Cross-Straits crisis is really about.
Before Clinton can respond to Lee's challenge he has to know what policies the PRC leaders now in their annual conclave at the Beidaihe resort have decided on.
Clinton most wants agreement by the Chinese leaders that they will join the WTO. His place in history will be secure if the bull market continues at least to November next year. The WTO is vital for the bull market's continuity. And China's entry is vital for the WTO's survival.
A USA-oriented Congress has been fighting an America moving out into the world since 1919. At that time Republican Henry Cabot Lodge crushed Wilson and USA membership in his creation, the League of Nations. Once again Republican and Democrat nationalists are fighting a tide pulling America out into the world.
They have an ally in Lee Teng-hui who prefers a special relationship with the USA to an ambiguous role in the new American empire. But if the Chinese leaders in Beidaihe give Clinton what he wants then President Lee will have a much tougher foe to contend with than those Chinese Communist leaders.