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Primakov Doctrine Aims at Global Role for Russia -- With or Without Yeltsin

By Andrew Meier

Date: 09-24-96

Even as Boris Yeltsin awaits an uncertain fate under the knife and his rivals jockey for power in the Kremlin, Russia is re-asserting its influence on the global stage under the guiding hand of an old Soviet apparatchik. Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov is putting into action a new policy thrust that the history books may one day refer to as the "Primakov Doctrine." PNS associate editor Andrew Meier, currently traveling through Russia on an Alicia Patterson Foundation fellowship, has lived in and reported from the former Soviet Union since the early 1990s.

MOSCOW -- While Boris Yeltsin lies waiting for a triple-bypass operation, an old hand has quietly taken charge of Russia's foreign relations. Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov has abruptly reoriented Russia's foreign policy -- and his own travel itinerary -- towards the Middle East and the former Soviet republics.

Unlike his predecessor, Andrei Kozyrev, who warmly embraced the West and was branded a "Westernizing liberal," Primakov is reuniting Russia with former friends both within the old Soviet Union and along its long borders.

Primakov assumed his new job earlier this year facing what seemed like an insuperable challenge. How does a politically unstable and cash-strapped great power regain international influence? Primakov hit on a low-cost, non-military solution that may go down in the history books as "the Primakov Doctrine" -- wherever possible, Russia will step into regional disputes as peace-maker and expand its influence through successful mediation.

The new policy direction -- ratified at a recent confab of all Soviet ambassadors -- faced its first test during the latest Gulf crisis. At first Moscow lambasted Clinton's cruise missile strikes at Iraq as proof of Washington's desire to dominate the post-Cold War world. Then Primakov softened his tone and moved into the diplomatic vacuum to mediate on behalf of his old friend Saddam Hussein. Soon Primakov was on Russian TV taking credit for Baghdad's vow not to fire on allied aircraft patrolling the expanded no-fly zones over Iraq.

The stakes in this strategy go way beyond winning kudos for averting another clash between Iraq and the U.S. On the economic front, Primakov is working to lay the basis for reviving the "oil for food" deal previously negotiated between the United Nations and Iraq. Then he wants to orchestrate an international effort to lift all sanctions on Iraq. If this goes through it will open the door for Russia's mighty banks and oil companies to return to Baghdad, this time with real money and billion dollar deals.

The political stakes are equally high. By jumping in to defend Iraq against American "hegemonism," Primakov knows he can bolster his reputation in Baghdad as a trusted comrade of Saddam's. And he also knows that this will help him rebuild the many old bridges to the Middle East which fell along with the Soviet empire.

The rise of the Primakov doctrine is also linked to the recent ascent of Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. With many Arab countries looking warily at the new Israeli leader and his cold embrace of the peace process, Primakov knows the time is ripe for Moscow to re-enter the Middle East debate, resume its seat at the peace-making table and show its tilt towards the Arab side.

As he has in the Middle East, Primakov is also moving into the diplomatic vacuum surrounding Russia's "Near Abroad," the former Soviet republics. Soon after assuming control of the foreign ministry, he twice toured the Central Asian states. That started the re-building of Moscow's long reach to the region's newly independent countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

He has also been doing a peace-making shuttle between Armenia and Azerbaijan -- the worst of neighbors even in the old USSR. His shuttle helped secure the release of 109 prisoners held in the conflict between the two republics over the disputed Armenian-inhabited enclave of Nagorno-Karabagh.

With his boss Yeltsin facing an uncertain fate under the knife, and the jockeying for power in the Kremlin already underway, Primakov knows his future hangs in the balance. But he need not worry. With this new doctrine, Primakov has prepared his own best arguments for staying in power -- a forceful new policy direction for Russia's re-appearance on the world stage.

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